December 3, 2010
It Just Keeps Getting Better!
by Luckbox
I bet you were thinking there wasn't going to be anymore awesome news about the WPBT before you arrived next week.
Well, you're wrong. First it was PokerStars stepping up to the plate, now it's the awesome folks at Full Tilt Poker (Thanks AlCantHang!!!!!). Here we go:
Full Tilt Poker Add-ons
- Full Tilt Poker is adding $1000 to the WPBT Winter Classic tournament prize pool. It will be distributed thusly: $100 to the final table bubble, $300 for first, $200 for second, $175 for third, $125 for fourth, $100 for fifth.
- Full Tilt Poker is providing $500 for five bounties on players to be announced prior to the tournament. Each bounty player will have a trinket that you will be responsible for recovering when you knock them out and it is your responsibility to bring your trinket to me to get credit.
- The above added prize pools will be transferred into your Full Tilt Poker account. (What if you don't have a Full Tilt Poker account? First, it's free and easy to sign up! Second, you can provide us with whatever FTP account you wish, so if you want it deposited into someone else's account, we can arrange that.)
- Full Tilt Poker is ponying up $2000 for the food tab for the private suite at Lagasse's Stadium for football on Sunday. It's a phenomenal location to enjoy the games and having $2000 of the tab covered is tremendous! This covers the food tab, NOT the drink tab. And don't be that punk who leaves someone else paying for your drinks!
PokerStars Add-Ons
The Luckbox Last Longer Challenge III
- Teams of three must be formed before the tournament begins and submitted to The Luckbox. Team entries can be left in the comments of Up For Poker on THE ORIGINAL POST (this link), sent to cusephenom -@- yahoo DOT com, or done in person in Las Vegas.
- The Luckbox will be at the tournament site at 11am, one hour prior to the scheduled start time of the tournament. Live registration ends at 11:45am, 15 minutes prior to scheduled start time of the tournament. Sorry, no exceptions.
- Each team requires a $30 entry fee ($10 per person).
- If you are unable to find two teammates prior to the end of the Last Longer registration, you are ineligible to participate in the Last Longer competition.
- It is each team members' responsibility to notify The Luckbox (or his representative) upon his/her elimination. If notification is not made at the time of bust out, the player will be assigned the same amount of points he or she would have earned for busting out first.
- At the end of the event, each players' bust out number will be added together and the lowest total finishes first, 2nd lowest finishes second, etc. If two teams finish with the same total, the tie-breaker is the team with the top finishing player. No updates will be given on standings during the tournament to avoid giving anyone an advantage.
- From the added prize pool: $1,500 to winning team ($500 apiece) and then $900 for the second place team ($300 a piece) and then $600 for the third place team ($200 a piece). The added prize pool will be transferred into your PokerStars account. From the entry fee prize pool: 50% to the winning team, 30% to 2nd place and 20% to 3rd place. The entry fee prize pool will be handed out at the conclusion of the tournament. (What if you don't have a PokerStars account? First, it's free and easy to sign up! Second, you can provide us with whatever Stars account you wish if you're on the winning team. So if you want it deposited into someone else's account, we can arrange that.)
- Any and all disputes will be handled by The Luckbox and thisisnotapril. All decisions are final.
- By paying an entry fee, you are agreeing to the rules set forth here.
Other add-ons
- PokerStars is putting up a $1000 prize pool for what we're calling the PokerStars WPBT O.G. Headhunter. $100 bounties will be placed on the heads of ten people in the tournament who were at the very first WPBT Winter Gathering in 2004. The names of the bounty players will be announced before the tourney begins.
- Each bounty player will have a trinket that you will be responsible for recovering when you knock them out and it is your responsibility to bring your trinket to me to get credit. Once again, prize money for the OGH will be deposited into your PokerStars account.
- PokerStars is putting up $500 for the Hammer Challenge. The first ten hammers shown for the win post-flop will receive $50 apiece. Again, those hammers must be shown post-flop. When you accomplish this feat, you'll need to stand up and yell, "Hammer" for confirmation from the floor and so I can record the feat. And, again, prize money for the HC will be deposited into your PokerStars account.
December 1, 2010
WPBT Twitter Hashtags
by Luckbox
The tweets will be a-flyin' during the WPBT. There is no doubt at that. We all know that Twitter killed the blogging star, so why wait until after the WPBT to read about trip reports when you can get them 140 characters at a time? With that in mind, here are some handy hashtags you should be using:
#wpbt: This is the catchall for wpbt-related tweets. This one is currently in use and should be tracked for any updates leading up to the big event. I would always include this hashtag even if you include another one. Many people will have an ongoing search set up for #wpbt all weekend long.
#geishabar: Thursday night at about 9pm will mark one of the first large drunken gatherings. The problem? Your cell phone likely won't work. So good luck tweeting from there!
#wpbtgolf: Joe Speaker has graciously agreed to set this up again and it looks like they've got a couple of foursomes already lined up. You'll want to get in touch sooner rather than later if you want to be a last minute add.
#table16: This hashtag makes a triumphant return from last year. Table 16 in the MGM poker room is the legendary location of some of the dumbest, drunkest poker in WPBT history. thisisnotapril has reserved this table for us yet again. I can't imagine it will get as crazy this year, but you never know.
#mgmmixed: thisisnotapril has plans to reserve a separate MGM poker room table for slightly less crazy, but likely just as drunken, mixed games.
#steelpanther: Yeah, can't wait to read these tweets. Auto-correct will be in full effect. I'll be missing this since I've done it two years in a row, but if you haven't gone, do so... and try to get the attention of the band during the show, they'll have really nice things to say about you!
#wpbtclassic: This is the hashtag for our big tournament. You may have heard about some awesome add-ons, so go there to read about them and sign up! However, there is to be NO discussion at the tourney location about any extra money involved. We are playing for "pride." Got it? Good.
#wpbtfootball: Sunday is all about football. I've heard the one-and-only AlCantHang is working on accommodations and that we may be back at Lagasse's this year. I'm sure there will be more info to come on this. One way or another, we'll all be together betting on who the Vikings will lose to.
#otisfalls: It's pretty self-explanatory and will be in effect all weekend long. If Otis, or anyone else, falls, let people know about it.
#wheelchair: This one is pretty much reserved for Drizz.
#paigow: Yep, plenty of drunk Pai Gow poker to be played. Play it loud. Play it proud. And don't leave without steak and eggs.
#wpbt420: I'm just throwing this one out there. Never partook myself, and don't plan on it, but Pauly, Change100 and others may use this hashtag.
#timmyeatstwobreakfasts: Anyone who eats a very large meal, particularly if they do, in fact, eat two breakfasts, should use this hashtag.
What am I missing? Feel free to add your own hashtag ideas in the comments.
UPDATE:
#procedure: As BadBlood rightly points out, this is an important hashtag for those of you looking to get rolled serviced entertained by strippers. But if you're tweeting during a lap dance, you're doing it wrong.
November 11, 2010
One Month Away!
by Luckbox
In a month from today, many of us will be sitting down at the tables at Aria for the 2010 World Poker Blogger Tour Winter Classic (on Facebook here). The only question I have is... are you signed up for the Luckbox Last Longer Challenge?
Right now, 42 of you are nodding your head. That's because there are 14 teams currently signed up to go after the $3000 prize pool provided by the awesome folks at Pokerstars. That means many of you are shaking your head because you apparently don't like free money.
Don't be that guy (or gal). Sign up! And here's how (along with the official rules):
- Teams of three must be formed before the tournament begins and submitted to The Luckbox. Team entries can be left in the comments of Up For Poker on THE ORIGINAL POST (this link), sent to cusephenom -@- yahoo DOT com, or done in person in Las Vegas.
- The Luckbox will be at the tournament site at 11am, one hour prior to the scheduled start time of the tournament. Live registration ends at 11:45am, 15 minutes prior to scheduled start time of the tournament. Sorry, no exceptions.
- Each team requires a $30 entry fee ($10 per person).
- If you are unable to find two teammates prior to the end of the Last Longer registration, you are ineligible to participate in the Last Longer competition.
- It is each team members' responsibility to notify The Luckbox (or his representative) upon his/her elimination. If notification is not made at the time of bust out, the player will be assigned the same amount of points he or she would have earned for busting out first.
- At the end of the event, each players' bust out number will be added together and the lowest total finishes first, 2nd lowest finishes second, etc. If two teams finish with the same total, the tie-breaker is the team with the top finishing player. No updates will be given on standings during the tournament to avoid giving anyone an advantage.
- From the added prize pool: $1,500 to winning team ($500 apiece) and then $900 for the second place team ($300 a piece) and then $600 for the third place team ($200 a piece). The added prize pool will be transferred into your PokerStars account. From the entry fee prize pool: 50% to the winning team, 30% to 2nd place and 20% to 3rd place. The entry fee prize pool will be handed out at the conclusion of the tournament. (What if you don't have a PokerStars account? First, it's free and easy to sign up! Second, you can provide us with whatever Stars account you wish if you're on the winning team. So if you want it deposited into someone else's account, we can arrange that.)
- Any and all disputes will be handled by The Luckbox and thisisnotapril. All decisions are final.
- By paying an entry fee, you are agreeing to the rules set forth here.
We want to make sure that the great people at PokerStars know how much we appreciate this so when you talk about the Luckbox Last Longer Challenge III (we're going to call it the L-cubed-cubed), please give PokerStars some love (your blog, twitter, facebook, etc.).
What's that you say? There's more?!?!?!?!?
Yes, there's more.
For the Winter Classic 2010, PokerStars is putting up a $1000 prize pool for what we're calling the PokerStars WPBT O.G. Headhunter. $100 bounties will be placed on the heads of ten people in the tournament who were at the very first WPBT Winter Gathering in 2004. The names of the bounty players will be announced before the tourney begins.
Each bounty player will have a trinket that you will be responsible for recovering when you knock them out and it is your responsibility to bring your trinket to me to get credit. Once again, prize money for the OGH will be deposited into your PokerStars account.
What's that you ask again? There's even more?!?!?!?
Why, now that you've asked, there is!
Some of you out there might think the concept of the Hammer is a little played out. I mean, it used to be cool before it went all mainstream and pros like Phil Hellmuth and Antonio Esfandiari started dropping it on national TV (without giving any credit it to Grubby!), but I digress. It's ours and we're bringing it back!
The wonderful folks at PokerStars are putting up $500 for the Hammer Challenge. The first ten hammers shown for the win post-flop will receive $50 apiece. Again, those hammers must be shown post-flop. When you accomplish this feat, you'll need to stand up and yell, "Hammer" for confirmation from the floor and so I can record the feat. And, again, prize money for the HC will be deposited into your PokerStars account.
That's a total of $4500 in added prize money for the 2010 Winter Classic courtesy of our friends at PokerStars. Give them some love when you get a chance! And if you have any questions, let me know!
September 9, 2010
Luckbox Last Longer Challenge III (and more!)
by Luckbox
Every year, this gets better and better. Start lining up your teammates now. You won't believe what we have in store for you this year!
And if you thought the L-cubed was fun, that's not all we've got going this year!
Let's start with the breaking news:
PokerStars will be adding $3000 to the Luckbox Last Longer Challenge III prize pool.
Let me say that again.
The awesome folks at PokerStars are once again showing their support for the WPBT by adding $3000 to the prize pool for the Luckbox Last Longer Challenge at the Winter Classic (and find it on Facebook).
Now let's get to the details. With this much money now at stake, we're putting down some rules. Read carefully!
- Teams of three must be formed before the tournament begins and submitted to The Luckbox. Team entries can be left in the comments of Up For Poker on THIS POST, sent to cusephenom -@- yahoo DOT com, or done in person in Las Vegas.
- The Luckbox will be at the tournament site at 11am, one hour prior to the scheduled start time of the tournament. Live registration ends at 11:45am, 15 minutes prior to scheduled start time of the tournament. Sorry, no exceptions.
- Each team requires a $30 entry fee ($10 per person).
- If you are unable to find two teammates prior to the end of the Last Longer registration, you are ineligible to participate in the Last Longer competition.
- It is each team members' responsibility to notify The Luckbox (or his representative) upon his/her elimination. If notification is not made at the time of bust out, the player will be assigned the same amount of points he or she would have earned for busting out first.
- At the end of the event, each players' bust out number will be added together and the lowest total finishes first, 2nd lowest finishes second, etc. If two teams finish with the same total, the tie-breaker is the team with the top finishing player. No updates will be given on standings during the tournament to avoid giving anyone an advantage.
- From the added prize pool: $1,500 to winning team ($500 apiece) and then $900 for the second place team ($300 a piece) and then $600 for the third place team ($200 a piece). The added prize pool will be transferred into your PokerStars account. From the entry fee prize pool: 50% to the winning team, 30% to 2nd place and 20% to 3rd place. The entry fee prize pool will be handed out at the conclusion of the tournament. (What if you don't have a PokerStars account? First, it's free and easy to sign up! Second, you can provide us with whatever Stars account you wish if you're on the winning team. So if you want it deposited into someone else's account, we can arrange that.)
- Any and all disputes will be handled by The Luckbox and thisisnotapril. All decisions are final.
- By paying an entry fee, you are agreeing to the rules set forth here.
We want to make sure that the great people at PokerStars know how much we appreciate this so when you talk about the Luckbox Last Longer Challenge III (we're going to call it the L-cubed-cubed), please give PokerStars some love (your blog, twitter, facebook, etc.).
If you have any questions about this, leave them in the comments or email me at the email address listed above!
What's that you say? There's more?!?!?!?!?
Yes, there's more.
For the Winter Classic 2010, PokerStars is putting up a $1000 prize pool for what we're calling the PokerStars WPBT O.G. Headhunter. $100 bounties will be placed on the heads of ten people in the tournament who were at the very first WPBT Winter Gathering in 2004. The names of the bounty players will be announced before the tourney begins.
Each bounty player will have a trinket that you will be responsible for recovering when you knock them out and it is your responsibility to bring your trinket to me to get credit. Once again, prize money for the OGH will be deposited into your PokerStars account.
What's that you ask again? There's even more?!?!?!?
Why, now that you've asked, there is!
Some of you out there might think the concept of the Hammer is a little played out. I mean, it used to be cool before it went all mainstream and pros like Phil Hellmuth and Antonio Esfandiari started dropping it on national TV (without giving any credit it to Grubby!), but I digress. It's ours and we're bringing it back!
The wonderful folks at PokerStars are putting up $500 for the Hammer Challenge. The first ten hammers shown for the win post-flop will receive $50 apiece. Again, those hammers must be shown post-flop. When you accomplish this feat, you'll need to stand up and yell, "Hammer" for confirmation from the floor and so I can record the feat. And, again, prize money for the HC will be deposited into your PokerStars account.
That's a total of $4500 in added prize money for the 2010 Winter Classic courtesy of our friends at PokerStars. Give them some love when you get a chance! And if you have any questions, let me know!
Let's get those teams going now!
January 7, 2010
I Love Free Stuff from PokerStars!
by Luckbox
December 14, 2009
Luckbox Last Longer Challenge Results
by Luckbox
Thanks to everyone who participated in the 2nd Luckbox Last Longer Challenge. It was a huge success... made even better by the $2000 added prize pool from our friends at PokerStars!
We had 24 teams enter for a total of $720 in entry fees. If that doesn't scream, "Hammer!" then I don't know what does.
In the end, Team Roach bested us all with a remarkable combined finish of 43. Poker Gnome finished 5th, Recess Rampage finished 16th and Bayne finished 22nd. They each walked away with $120 plus $500 from PokerStars.
The lovely ladies from Team Hammer Girls finished 2nd with a combined finish of 65. Katitude finished 19th, Maigrey finished 21st and Maudie finished 25th. They each cashed for $72 plus $500 to split from PokerStars.
Last, but not least, Team Tao of Pot proved that chemical enhancements can pay off. Their combined finish of 78 was 8 better than 4th place. Change100 bubbled the final table in 11th, Derek finished 28th and Pauly finished 39th. They each took home $48.
Here's the rest of the top 10:
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(Apologies for any spelling errors or incorrect names. Please alert me in the comments.)
4th: Team Last Minute - Alceste, California April, DawnSummers (86)
5th: Team Waffles - Jordan, Dr. Chako, Waffles (90)
6th: Team Geek Nation - Penner, Alan, Garth (91)
7th: Team I Kissed One of These Girls - F-Train, CK, The Wife (92)
8th: Team LA D-Bags - Joe Speaker, Absinthe, Shane (98)
9th: Team Two Chicks and a Grump - Poker Grump, Katie, Writer Jen (105)
10th (t): Team Bonus Code Iggy - Obie VIP, Iggy, Rooster (113)
10th (t): Team Bad Football - Butch, Matt, Columbo (113)
Thanks again to everyone who participated. We'll definitely do this again, especially if we can get PokerStars involved!
Oh...
And for the record Team Up For Poker finished with a total of 132 which was ahead of the defending champs, Team Mizzou, who came in at 137.
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December 2, 2009
WPBT Sunday at the Sportsbook
by Luckbox
It was waaaay back in 2004 when the WPBT held it's first live event in Vegas. Back then, I wrote: "If you didn't know, our WPBT event coincided with the National Rodeo Finals. That meant Vegas played host to the largest collection of cowboy hats and plastic breasts since the release of Western Barbie."
One of the highlights of that trip was Sunday at the Mandalay Bay sportsbook. Here's what we wrote:
G-Rob wrote: "Another Damn trip report....I'm almost done...really!"
Otis wrote: "From Rock Gardens to Sherwood Forests"
The Luckbox wrote: Well... nothing. For some reason I teased an entry called "Sports Betting is Evil" but never got around to writing it. Instead, I'll give you this gem from the 2005 WPBT called "Too Drunk to Call."
Why am I telling you this? Well, if you're going to still be there Sunday, we've got a spectacular set up for this year's sports betting excitement!
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It's called Lagasse's Stadium and it's at The Venetian. We've got a private luxury suite reserved under the names of AlCantHang and The Luckbox for the entire day of NFL games. That suite has seating for 25 but room for others. It's got two 52" TVs with remotes, a pool table, a private bathroom and an iPod docking station.
The catch? Well, we're going to have to be sure to buy at least $1500 in food and drinks among the group. I figure with the folks we'll have there, it won't be too hard. The great people at The Venetian are giving us a pretty sizeable discount on the minimum food purchase. Once again, someone's showing some love for the WPBT!
The sports book opens at 8am and Sunday NFL kickoff is 10am. Space is limited so if you're name isn't AlCantHang or The Luckbox, you better make sure you get there in time to be part of our private luxury suite.
Here's an article in the Las Vegas Reivew Journal with more on Lagasse's Stadium. And if you check out the Casino City Gang podcast on November 19th, they talk a little more about the sportsbook.
If you think you'll be there Sunday morning at Lagasse's Stadium, let me know in the comments so we can get a sense of just how crazy the day will be!
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November 30, 2009
Update #1: Luckbox Last Longer Challenge
by Luckbox
I want to thank those of you who have already signed up for the L-cubed challenge with the $2000 added prize pool from PokerStars!
The best news is that the vast majority of teams entered thus far are horribly flawed. Team Up For Poker is ideally suited to run away with the $1500 top prize. The rest of you are still eligible to win the $500 consolation prize.
Before I list the teams currently entered, I'll remind you how to get your team in the challenge. Team entries can be left in the comments of Up For Poker on THIS POST, sent to cusephenom -@- yahoo DOT com, or done in person in Las Vegas between noon and 12:45pm during tournament registration.
Without further ado, the teams as currently entered:
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Team Up For Poker: CJ, Otis, G-Rob
Team Gambling Tales: Falstaff, Special K, Mrs. Falstaff
Unnamed Team: Bayne, RecessRampage, smizmiatch
Team Fluffy Unicorns: lj, chad, augie
Team Waffles: Dr. Chako, Waffles, Jordan
Team Canada: Fuel, Schaubs, Bam-Bam
Team "I Kissed One of These Girls": F-Train, CK, The Wife
Team LA D-Bags: shane, Speaker, Troublecat
Team D-Listers: lightning36, OhCaptain, pokerpeaker
Team Wheelchair: Drizz, AlCantHang, StB
Team Procedure: BadBlood, TheMark, Moutray
Team Name Forthcoming: iggy, Obie VIP, the rooster
Team Tao of Pot: Pauly, Derek, Change100
Another Unnamed Team: Astin and a couple of buddies
Team-To-Be-Named-Later: Katitude, Maigrey, Maudie
So far, those are the 15 teams entered for The Luckbox Last Longer Challenge. I'll update this as we go.
Also, when you talk about this on Twitter, Facebook and your own blog, don't forget to give PokerStars some love. After all, we don't want this to be the last time Stars throws a little money our way!
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November 27, 2009
The Luckbox Last Longer Challenge
by Luckbox
Let's start with the breaking news:
PokerStars will be adding $2000 to the Luckbox Last Longer Challenge prize pool.
Let me say that again.
The awesome folks at PokerStars are once again showing their support for the WPBT by adding $2000 to the prize pool for the Luckbox Last Longer Challenge at the Winter Classic (and find it on Facebook).
Let's just say this little contest of pride and wills just grew into something awesome. Now let's get to the details. With this much money now at stake, we're putting down some rules. Read carefully!
More in this Poker Blog
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- Teams of three must be formed before the tournament begins and submitted to The Luckbox. Team entries can be left in the comments of Up For Poker on THIS POST, sent to cusephenom -@- yahoo DOT com, or done in person in Las Vegas.
- The Luckbox will be at the tournament site at Noon, one hour prior to the scheduled start time of the tournament. Live registration ends at 12:45pm, 15 minutes prior to scheduled start time of the tournament. Sorry, no exceptions.
- Each team requires a $30 entry fee ($10 per person).
- If you are unable to find two teammates prior to the end of the Last Longer registration, you are ineligible to participate in the Last Longer competition.
- It is each team members' responsibility to notify The Luckbox (or his representative) upon his/her elimination. If notification is not made at the time of bust out, the player will be assigned the same amount of points he or she would have earned for busting out first.
- At the end of the event, each players' bust out number will be added together and the lowest total finishes first, 2nd lowest finishes second, etc. If two teams finish with the same total, the tie-breaker is the team with the top finishing player.
- From the added prize pool: $1,500 to winning team ($500 apiece) and then $500 for for second place team ($170 for top player on team, $165 for other two players). The added prize pool will be transferred into your PokerStars account. From the entry fee prize pool: 50% to the winning team, 30% to 2nd place and 20% to 3rd place. The entry fee prize pool will be handed out at the conclusion of the tournament. (Astin asked in the comments about people with no PokerStars account. First, it's free and easy to sign up! Second, you can provide us with whatever Stars account you wish if you're on the winning team. So if you want it deposited into someone else's account, we can arrange that.)
- Any and all disputes will be handled by The Luckbox and thisisnotapril. All decisions are final.
- By paying an entry fee, you are agreeing to the rules set forth here.
We want to make sure that the great people at PokerStars know how much we appreciate this so when you talk about the Luckbox Last Longer Challenge (we're going to call it the L-cubed), please give PokerStars some love (your blog, twitter, facebook, etc.).
If you have any questions about this, leave them in the comments or email me at the email address listed above!
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November 23, 2009
Why Bill Belichick Was Wrong
by Luckbox
I can't believe there's even a discussion about this. Everyone knows that Belichick was wrong. He made an arrogant decision that cost his team a victory. Yet rocket scientists and amateur poker players everywhere are breaking out their protractors to justify this game-losing decision.
Well, I spent about 10 minutes doing my own research. I present: Other numbers.
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Over the last 6 weeks of the 2009 NFL football season, teams have attempted to go for it on 4th and 2 on 14 different occasions (including Belichick's dumb decision). Any idea how many times those 14 attempts have been successful? I'll give you a minute to guess.
Yep, it's zero. That's right. A big 0%. Eight incomplete passes, two failed runs, two interceptions, one sack and Belichick's pass that came up inches short. I wonder if Belichick knew how difficult it is to convert 4th and 2 when he made his bone-headed decision?
Anyone who understands football understands the difficulty in converting 4th and 2. It's a little too far to run meaning teams can play for the pass. In fact, Belichick made it even easier on the Colts by emptying the backfield eliminating any threat of a run at all.
Of course, many argue that had New England punted that Manning (because he's so super-awesome) would have lead a TD drive anyway. I wonder what the numbers say?
Over the last 6 weeks of the season, Indianapolis has had 37 drives starting from the 30 or behind and they've converted TDs in 10 of them. That's 27%.
Over the last 6 weeks of the season, New England's opponents have had 44 drives starting from the 30 or behind and they've convered TDs in 5 of them. That's 11%.
What about when New England and Indianapolis play each other? Here are some more numbers.
In this year's game, Indianapolis had 12 drives starting from the 30 or behind and they converted TDs in 3 of them. That's 25%.
Since 2006 against New England, Indianapolis had 29 drives starting from the 30 or behind and they converted TDs in 6 of them. That's 21%.
Of course, Indianapolis got the ball from the 40 yard line or closer twice against New England since 2006 and, predictably, both resulted in TDs, including the game-winner a week ago.
So what do the numbers tell me?
4th and 2 conversion rate last 6 weeks: 0%
Indianapolis' TD rate from 70+ yards vs. NFL last 6 weeks: 27%
New England's opponents' TD rate from 70+ yards last 6 weeks: 11%
Indianapolis' TD rate from 70+ yards vs. NE last week: 25%
Indianapolis' TD rate from 70+ yards vs. NE since 2006: 21%
I don't know about you... but those numbers certainly don't support going for it on 4th and 2. Looks like NE had a chance somewhere between 75% and 85% of stopping Indianapolis on a long TD drive but very little chance of either converting the 4th down or stopping the Colts if they failed on the 4th down conversion. And that doesn't even include the fact that the Colts would have been attempting this drive with just 1 timeout and just 2 minutes left in the game which likely lowers the Colts' percentages.
Of course, lots of people will say I'm cherry-picking. Guess what? That's what statisticians do. They cherry-pick numbers to support their case.
This was a bad decision by Belichick. It's clear that the decision was last-second which only compounded the mistake. Had New England really intended to go for it on 4th down no matter what, there's little chance they throw the ball on 3rd down. Not only would a run have been a surprise on 3rd (giving it a better chance of succeeding) it also would have forced the Colts to burn their final timeout and it would likely have gotten them closer for their 4th down attempt (which, given the spot, would have made all the difference).
When New England failed on 3rd down, most of the offense was running off the field and New England was then forced to burn their last timeout which prevented them from challenging the spot on 4th down (although I'm not sure a challenge would have worked). If the plan was to go for it on 4th all along, wouldn't the offense have known that? After all, they had already burned a timeout in that same drive!
Not to mention, going for it in this situation brings all kinds of factors into play, including crowd noise and the potential of the home crowd to influence any close spot in favor of the Colts.
Of course, context doesn't matter to the people with their fancy equations. Context is irrelevant, right?
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