June 30, 2008
Las Vegas
by G-Rob
Las Vegas may be the most fictional of any real place on the map. It's either a glamourous city of glitz or a romanticized mecca of depravity.
Even calling Las Vegas a black hole gives it too much credit. A black hole has, at its center, a singularity of such incredible mass and gravity that nothing can escape. At the heart of the dark Las Vegas hole, there is only another hole.
Las Vegas is not exotic. It is not mysterious. Las Vegas is a busy airport and a place our unconscious mind already knows.
I spent just 3 days there and knew it all well.
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LAS VEGAS IS A STRIP MALL
There was a time, before every town had an Interstate off-ramp, when naming a city said as much about a different culture within as its location on the globe.
Now everywhere is a clone.
In G-Vegas, the big strip, Treebark Road, has all the big chains. It has a P.F. Chang's and a Carrabas. It has a Home Depot and a Wal-Mart. It is 5 lanes wide and could, except for a different, essentially randomized, distribution be any street anywhere in America.
Las Vegas is no different.
There are 10 different shows all branded by the same sterile Comedy Central comics. Ten more headlined by your local adult contemporary FM. Even the "hip and trendy" joints are sterilized copies of something corporate and stale. Wolfgang Puck has a half-dozen restaurants, many of them in the half-dozen Harrah's brand casinos.
Those casinos all have the same number of "Wheel of Fortune" slot machines, just in case you're jonesing for the 7PM slot on your local TV dial.
On Sunday, before heading to the airport, BadBlood and I ate breakfast at McDonalds. That was after we stopped to buy his wife a C.S.I. Las Vegas T-Shirt that was on sale in a dozen different stores. The stores themselves no different than the garbage stores that line the streets in Myrtle Beach, New York City, and San Francisco.
Even the people look the same. Las Vegas hipsters have a uniform. White, pin-striped, button down shirt... blue jeans... square toed shoes. Everyone in Las Vegas dresses like Otis at a karaoke bar.
Las Vegas has a four-story M&M store.
Las Vegas is hot asphalt and second-rate chains.
LAS VEGAS IS A NOVELTY ACT
The casinos themselves are a knowing act of self-parody. The goofy dark ages castle at "Excalibur" is a silly mash-up of Arthurian legend, fairy tales, and neon. Across the street at "New York, New York" there is a Manhattan skyline with a tribute outside to the victims of 9/11.
"New York, New York" is exactly what people from Des Moines think Manhattan is like.
On Friday night, our party had a meta-Vegas experience. We saw a parody lounge act at the "Green Valley Ranch". I will say the "Steel Panther" show was one of the highlights of our trip.
"Panther" is a mocking and somewhat condescending tribute to '80s hair band rock so convincing that only people who actually do love the music could pull it off. They did. Down to the matching leopard skin tights.
Otis, BadBlood, and I found a spot in the front of the stage and showed devil dorns to Bon Jovi, Poison, and the original tune "Asian Hooker." Luckbox hung out near the back because parody rock "isn't his thing."
Professional Poker Player, and one of the few genuine people in Vegas, Brandon Schaefer offered to buy our drinks. We accepted.
During one of the many pauses in the music for wacky and hilarious banter (sample: "Hey dude! Check out the boobies on that girl!") the singer and lead guitar turned their focus to me.
"Hey! Look at that tall guy in the Target outfit!"
"Dude, did you just get off work at Target?"
"You look like you just got dressed after a half-off sale at Sears." [Luckbox edit: I believe the line was, "You look like what happens when a Sears explodes."]
Noticing Otis beside me, they continued:
"And look, his gay boyfriend is here too!"
Good Times.
Again, parody of imitation is actually entertaining. I loved the show.
LAS VEGAS IS A FAT SUBURBAN MAN
My concert appearance did stand out. I dressed the way I dress. Everyone else was looking far more hip, including my new gay boyfriend.
At the Palms Casino, home of the best looking women on the planet, I stood out even more. I wouldn't have looked more out of place as a background dancer in a 50-cent video.
But everyone there WAS like me.
Vacationers in Vegas are trying hard for something that isn't there. Unlike a vacation at the beach, where no matter how much you over-estimate the adventure to come there is actuallly an ocean, Vegas promises something that was never possible at all.
After two days of partying like a 21-year-old kid with a fat wallet and no goals, I spent Sunday sober and sore. I played blackjack late that night with Badblood and Luckbox and watched those that played along.
First, silent rich guy and obnoxious large-breasted hooker.
Second, two twenty something drunk girls doing their best to look carefree.
The hooker seemed more honest. Everyone knew who she was.
The falsity of everything in Vegas leads its visitors to believe that they are characters in the big play. They act the role they felt determined to re-enact long before they arrived.
It sinks in soon that only their dreams are well-cast.
They, themselves, are as young again as the Rio is like Brazil.
It always takes at least two days. The dream dies. We are left without it. Inside the hole where our dreams had been, there is only another hole. It won't help to double down.
Of course,
I had a blast.
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June 26, 2008
2008 WSOP: First impressions, late game
by Otis
I've gone to the bathroom in one particular room in the Rio more times than I can count. It's one of those constants in Las Vegas. Things rarely change. There will be the guy smoking and pretending he doesn't know or care that it's against the rules. There will be the guy in a stall doing things that he probably would be embarassed to do in the privacy of his own home. There is the drunk guy who thinks it's perfectly reasonable to be intoxicated at breakfast. The urinals are usually bordering on clean, which is good enough for me.
Moments ago, I went in for my hourly leak and noticed something had changed. Gammo Testosterone booster is now advertising on the urinal pads. They blink flashing red lights. I pissed on one and the lights went out.
I don't know what that means.
More in this Poker Blog! -->
I parachuted into the World Series of Poker yesterday afternoon, a late-comer to the non-stop action. I felt mildly guity at first. Most of my colleagues have been working here for the better part of the past month while I got fat in my chair at home. The 1,000-yard stares are omnipresent and most people have already become alcoholics, gone through the 12 Steps, and then fallen off the wagon again. Me? I'm fresh and not yet red-eyed.
The early reports from the long-haulers were basically true. Things are, in fact, better here. The operation is running smoothly, the Poker Kitchen is somewhat better, and the players aren't grousing as much as they usually do.
Last night, I dreamed Doyle Brunson died. For reasons I can't quite explain, it had a visceral reaction upon my waking, nearly so much that I was a little surprised to see Texas Dolly walk in the room this afternoon. I'm sitting above Todd Brunson right now, and I can't help but feel sorry for him. Not because he's worked for years to get out of his dad's shadow, but because I still sort of feel like his dad actually died last night. Don't ask, because I don't know what that mean either.
No matter what you might have read about poker's wane, there is little strong indication of it here. During breaks, the players rush into the VIP lounge to dodge the crowds of lookie-loos and fans. When the pros emerge, it's to amatuer paparazzi. Phil Hellmuth is having a bad night, but his fan's won't let him wallow it in.
"The cards will turn, Phil!" one fan shouts down the hallway, completely serious and heartfelt. "The cards will turn!"
Perhaps even more disturbing than the fact that people have sympathy for the Poker Brat or that I honestly feel like I'm watching Brunson's ghost play cards is Mike Matsow's shinkage. The son of a bitch weighs less than I do right now. What's more he's won a bracelet this year and is all smiles at Table #11. The day Matusow maintains better physical and mental health than me (I'm sure he didn't dream about Brunson's wake) is the day I really need to start re-evaluating things.
It's an easy world to get badly bent. John Gale, the chain-smoking gentleman from across the pond, is no longer walking with swagger. He's being pushed in a wheelchair. Four discs in his spine went to hell last month. He's still here, but hasn't found the strength to play an event. I understand the draw of the World Series. I missed the first three weeks and regretted it for most of the time. Now that I'm here, I'm not sure what I was thinking.
I'm not sure at what point, "Oooooooh, Las Vegas!" became "Eeeewwwwww, Las Vegas!" I think it would be different if my decisions had been different. As I said last night, sometimes I feel like poker's fluffer. If you don't know what that means, don't worry. I barely do myself.
Regardless, at present, I'm sitting beside Pauly in media row and enjoying the proxemity. The $50,000 HORSE event is nearing the end of Day 1, the beginning of five days of, if not entirely interesting, rather important coverage. Badblood has arrived in town and is building a stack in the cash games across the room.
The World Series is better this year. It's my personal challenge to make sure I am, too. We'll evaluate that in about three weeks.
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June 25, 2008
Wanting to Think About Vegas...
by Luckbox
I will be wheels up for Vegas in about 24 hours, but I can't really think about it.
You see, I'm currently at the end of an 18 hour work day that started after just about 2 hours of sleep. It's all because some crazy guy decided to shoot up his workplace after getting into an argument with his boss. He even called his girlfriend two hours earlier saying, "I'm going to shoot my boss." She apparently didn't believe him. Six people are dead, including the gunman.
In our business, we don't allow tragedy to weigh on us. We can't. We see too much of it. We often cope by telling really bad jokes at the expense of victims. It's really kinda sick, but it's what we do. It keeps us sane. I was doing fine until the plant manager got up to the mic at a press conference and said, between tears, "I hope none of you ever have to go through something like this. This is the worst day of my life."
Can you see why my mind isn't yet in the desert?
More in this Poker Blog! -->
My long week actually started last night, at the company softball game. I would imagine Otis and GRob might be able to talk about my softball prowess, or lack thereof. I think I'm pretty solid. I've got an above average glove that can play just about anywhere in the field. My bat is below average, but I'm adept at going the opposite way, and that at least gets me on base.
That's not to say I haven't had my "Not Top Plays" moments. I broke my toe at a company game in G-Vegas when a sinking line drive dipped under my glove and hit my foot. (I did manage to finish the game.) A few years later, at a company game in Knox-Vegas, the first baseman short-armed my throw from short and I nailed a woman in the side of the head. She quit the league.
Our current league attempts to even the gender playing field by forcing the guys to bat with their opposite hand. I'm not exactly the best hitter anyway, so this didn't help. My strategy is to hammer the ball into the ground and get it rolling towards third. I can usually beat the throw. Yeah, it's that bad. The good news is that Lady Luck swings a hot bat. She's clearly the best hitting woman, and one of the best hitters, on the team. It wasn't enough, however, to get us the win last night.
I got home by 10:30pm, was in bed a little before midnight, and was awakened by a call from work at about 2am telling me 11 people had been shot. I didn't think I heard it right. Thankfully, that number was high, but it was a rather tragic day nonetheless.
I'll be very happy when I've put E-Vegas behind me for a few days. It's been a long time since I've been to Sin City. Otis and Bad Blood are already there. G-Rob gets in a few hours before me. Then we're all back in Vegas yet again. I have plans... I'm just not sure what they are yet. If you're fortunate enough to join us, you can be part of the them. See you there!
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June 24, 2008
Bad-Blood-Bath
by G-Rob
I started really looking foreward to last Friday's game a full week in advance. Of course, that guarantees a bad night. As a rule, the more excited I am about sitting at a game the worse I'm likely to play.
Add to that the following problems and I've got almost no chance:
More in this Poker Blog! -->
1. An Unfortunate Table
Dealer/1s: Broccoli
2s: Wes Nile Virus
3s: Falstaff
4s: TeamScottSmith
5s: The Anti-Christ
6s: BadBlood
7s: G-Rob
8s: Gucci Rick
9s: Drizz
10s: Otis
Table selection is an art AND a science. I knew this one was trouble. At least half this table is better than me. Almost all of the other half is smarter than me. Of course, the anti-Christ has unholy power.
Many people are under the impression that Barack Obama is the anti-Christ. He is not. The Anti-Christ plays poker in Badblood's kitchen.
2. I'm Hammered
Not hammered in the funny, HA HA, you played 27o by raising big and took down a hand preflop way. I mean we went out drinking way early and never let up. I mean I met Otis at the bar several hours before the game. I mean that despite the rather embarrasing tolerance to vodka I've developed, I was starting to slur my words.
Luckily, or perhaps unluckily, I stayed more sober that Badblood.
3. I'm not playing my best game(s)
I didn't play well in any of the games. But I'm especially off my axis when we switch to poker games that are not a personal strength.
At this game we played one round of $1/$2 NLHE, one round of $1/$2 PLO8, and one round of $1/$2 PLO.
Omaha is no friend of mine. I worked in Nebraska for a bit and have few fond memories of a state where the biggest tree is a fence post.
And while I'm no Omaha player, others at this difficult table were. Badblood is solid at the game. Otis can play. And Drizz actually PREFERS the stupid post-flop drawing game.
Silliness I say.
I'd rather play razz.
4. I got unlucky
When I flopped a straight and top two in Omaha, Drizz flopped a straight and a flush draw. I lost a big pot.
When I sensed weakness in another player after we both missed a fairly large flop, I pushed $250 into a $200 pot.
That weak player called with only a gutshot draw. And hit.
5. The Prop bets
When we play at Badblood's house, we put his TV on the digital music channel called "Classic Rock" and gamble on it.
Each player picks a band and a song. If your band hits, all the players ship $5.
The song pays $10.
I hit the Rolling Stones twice and something else, the Beatles I think, once.
I promptly put all that money in play and lost it.
6. I got tilty
In particular, that last hand put me out of sorts. I bought in one more time after it and missed a big PLO8 draw in a 3-way pot.
Stacked again, I packed up my remaining Benjamins and went home at 1AM.
I hate leaving early, but if I'm going to fail THAT badly at table and game selection at least I wanted to make one good decision and hit the door when I knew I was too tilty to play.
I could already feel the desire to push on any draw and try to win it all back. Usually, that's a formula for losing whatever you have in your pocket.
In a sense, walking away was the only +EV play I made all night.
7. The Bottom Line
I lost a whole bunch of money.
This farewell e-mail from Drizz probably sums it up best:
Just wanted to say thanks for the gracious southern hospitality you showed me on Friday.
Wes - the BBQ, tour around Columbia, and driving skillz made my vacation, and desperately looking some similar BBQ up here even if its in a bottle
BB - The host. For the booze, the smoothly run game, and ability to get everyone together I thank you sir
Otis - For drinks at On the Border and a lesson on 3-betting my pansy ass
G-Rob - For paying for my Vegas trip in December with your awesome PLO skillz! Thanks man! I kid. I kid.
Shep and Scott - For completing the last check on my SC trip, hitting up a Waffle House to soak up some of those Captain and Cokes. Did anyone manage to get the waitress' name?
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June 20, 2008
Charles Barkley: Ready to gamble again
by Otis
It's been less than one month since G-Rob noted Charles Barkley's vow to quit gambling...for now. Now, Barkley says he's going to gamble for the greater good.
Barkley is among a number of celebs planning to play in the Ante Up For Africa event in Las Vegas in a couple of weeks. The entry fee is $5,000 and Barkely says he will donate all winnings to charity. [MORE]
But, really, it's not about the winnings is it? It's the losings.
Listen, we're sitting in a pretty fragile glass house here, so we're not going to be throwing anything too hard. However, I think it's pretty interesting for Gary Loveman and Harrah's to spend a lot of time on TV talking about controlling gambling addiciton and then roll out the red carpet for Barkley's money. A charitable donation from Barkely might be a better idea.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to try to organize a "Little Bit o' Smack-A-Thon" at our local methadone clinic.
It's for charity, y'all.
Update:My friend Skip Foreplay sent this to me later in the day and it seemed to fit the theme.
June 19, 2008
Vegas: Ramping up slowly
by Otis
"I equate gambling with being an asshole. If you don't have a life, go to Las Vegas, you dick."
--Henry Rollins
I should take offense to that. Instead, I laugh every time I hear it.
More in this Poker Blog! -->
I received a dubious reprieve this year. Questions were hashed and rehashed, decisions were made and remade, and when it all came out of the oven, I was "granted" a four-week leave from covering the World Series of Poker. This life change caused no small amount of consternation for this humble writer. More than half of my pscyhe was comforted by the change. It meant four more weekends to take my family on weekend day trips. It meant I got to watch my boy really swim for the first time. It meant I got to enjoy all of those comforts of home, carnal and otherwise, that I just don't get in Las Vegas.
It also meant that I was forced to do the one thing I hate about any form of writing. I had to watch from the bench for four weeks while Pauly churned out his best content in years, Gene took over my Video Poker quads dominance, and the rest of the elite blogging team in Vegas tore up what is reported to be the best-run Series since it moved to the Rio. I hate being relegated to anything, even if it means I'm relatively more sane for it.
My month-long pass is about to expire. This time next week, I will be up to my uvula in work and grousing like I have for the past several years. The shortened time-frame and additional responsibilities are sure to keep me out of too much trouble, and for that I'm actually thankful. Still, Vegas is a tough place to be for more than five days. For a few days, it's fun to be Hank Rollins' happy asshole. Any more than that and it becomes an amber-soaked zombie walk through one's personal hell.
As I wrote these few paragraphs, I went back and reviewed my postings from Vegas 2005-2007. I considered a brief retrospective. Then I decided against it.
I am a different person this year. I can't say how or what's changed, but I know I am different. Whether it's because I will be there for a shorter time or whatever has clicked in my head, I'm optimistic about the survivability of this trip. I actually feel like it will be successful, whatever that means.
I write this now so I can look back on it in three weeks when a normal life seems like a memory.
So, Hank, I'm going to Vegas in a few days. Chances are that I will gamble. My hope is that I come out the other side as a non-asshole, life-having, non-dick.
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June 18, 2008
Before They Were Stars: Poker Blogs
by Luckbox
The past can be a funny thing. Remember your hair style circa 1987? For most of us, it's changed drastically. For the rest of us, we're GRob, and were born with the same hair we have today. What about what we were wearing? I don't even want to imagine what would happen if our high school year books were suddenly splashed on our blogs.
But it's not just how we look... it's what we write. These crazy poker blogs of ours have become written records. They show our growth, our pain, our naive nature. And much of it is good for a laugh...
More in this Poker Blog! -->
We'll start with Waffles because, well, I think it might be the funniest. This is from his second post way back on June 24, 2004:
The point is: if your feeling desperate, or your changing your style after a bad beat, calm down, take a breath, and play the way you know you should.
Next we'll take a look back at Joe Speaker from December 6, 2004. After blogging for less than a month, he was confident enough to write this:
Which brings me to my next point...er...pop culture phenomenon. I admit it. I not only watch "The O.C.", but I love it to the point of distraction. Yes, I'm 37 years old. I am only able to admit this publicly, if anonymously, after seeing the show revered by at least two other poker bloggers. God bless you guys.
Now, I know BG is one of the two referenced OC lovers, but I wonder who the other one is. Was it Al?
Speaking of BG, I wasted an hour of work today going through his archives. There's some great stuff there. On October 31, 2003, he gave us his top 10 nicknames he wished he had:
1. "Detroit Slick" (this would, of course, be my poker nickname when I take the card rooms of Detroit by storm)
Okay, Detroit Slick it is!
Next up are the guys at Wicked Chops Poker. Back in the day, they hadn't yet realized the potential of half-naked women (thank goodness that inspiration hit them!). In this case, it was Chops talking about his first time at the table with poker bloggers back on April 25, 2005:
The poker bloggers were cool. I was very surprised at the funny comments, obscure references, etc. made during play. I even, amazingly, typed an LOL (those who know me will be very disappointed I did this) because someone made a comment that was legitimately funny. I immediately punched myself in the nose for typing LOL, but what can I say? I laughed out loud. Is laughing a crime?
It seems that for some, the more things change, the more they stay the same. Hoy is a good example of that. Back on January 6, 2004, he explained why he had lost 13 consecutive tournaments on PokerStars:
So anyways, ps is fixed. And now, after threating me Numerous times with suspending my playing privileges, stopping me from taking notes or chatting, now ps is targeting me individually, ensuring that I cannot make it far in ANY of their tournaments.
That's good stuff. At least these days, he just blames us donkeys when he loses.
I'm sure there's lots more good stuff out there, but I've likely bored all of you with this look into our past. I just shudder to think what some of you may find in my past!
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June 17, 2008
Remembering The WPBT Holiday Classic
by Luckbox
It was December 11th, 2004 when about 30 bloggers gathered in Vegas for a seminal moment in the explosion of poker blogging. None of us really knew what to expect and none of us were disappointed by what we found.
Many of the experiences were hard to describe, yet we spent thousands and thousands of words on dozens of blogs telling our handful of readers what they missed. By the time the next poker blogger event rolled around, our numbers had surged past 70. It wasn't long before we'd reach a peak above 100.
So why am I thinking about that weekend now?
More in this Poker Blog! -->
In 10 days, I'll be back in Vegas for the first time since the 2006 WSOP. And of those few dozen poker bloggers whom I first met that December weekend, I'll again get to spend time at the tables with Iggy, Pauly, Bad Blood, FTrain, Poker Prof and maybe even AlCantHang. Add in Otis and GRob, and we'll have nearly a third of that first group of bloggers back in Vegas together.
It was a long strange road that got us all there in the first place. A quick check of the archives shows these poker blogs started popping up in late 2003.
Pauly launched in August 2003:
Texas Hold'em poker is probably the most difficult, yet the most exhilirating card game out there. I know there are fanatics who share my same disposition and now there's a site for them to visit. Combined with the knowlegde that there are not too many poker blogs out there... I decided to start my own. 100% Poker speak... 100% of the time!
We opened here in September 2003:
Welcome to Up For Poker! Hopefully soon, there will be more contributors than just myself. This will also help my Up For Anything readers avoid a majority of my gambling rambling.
Iggy popped up a few weeks later:
Well, well, well. Figured I might as well start trying to document some of my experiences with God's nectar, Guinness, and the online Phenomena of Poker. I've been playing poker online for about six years. Drinking seriously for about twenty.
HDouble came next in October 2003 (where have ye gone?):
That's it for my introduction. Hopefully this journal will help me improve my game, as well as give me a chance to develop some thoughts worth developing. And if it gives some readers a few laughs or nods of recognition along the way, that would be nice too...
Update: BG also chimed in with his first poker post in October 2003:
I've been playing Texas Hold 'Em (no limit, $10 buy-in, winner take all) with the same group for about three months now. Normally, we're getting together six to ten strong on a weekend night, and playing until 1 or 2 AM. So far, so good. There's only two of us that can claim three victories during these games. I'm one of them.
Maudie jumped into the game in November 2003:
I hadn't played much hold-em previously - let alone no-limit - and so I was at sea with the jargon and had no clue as to strategy. Being the curious cat I am, I googled for poker reading material and was lead to my first poker publication purchase (nice alliteration, wouldn't you say?) Super System by Doyle Brunson.
Hammer-inventor Grubby joined a few days later:
I love playing poker.
I love eating.
Hey, why not combine the two?
Mean Gene emerged in December 2003:
I'm going to write more stuff than just hand histories here, honest. I'm thinking maybe some poker fiction. I mean, you just KNOW that a flood of poker movies and books are flooding to market right now. Maybe I should jump on the bandwagon.
AlCantHang finally took the plunge in February 2004:
I've been hitting alot of poker blogs recently and they've been well written and very enjoyable. Probably not so for this one. Those who know me will tell you, I drink too much and play poker poorly. I mean really bad.
BadBlood hopped on the train in March 2004:
Ah yes, a community that I could understand. Poker.
Well, at this point in time, I'd played for a few years off-line. And about 9 months on-line, many that I'd like to forget...
And finally, PokerProf and Flipchipro in April 2004:
I decided to undertake this blog effort after considerable encouragement and harassment from various family and staff members. I will make every effort to be timely with my entries, offer content that is interesting and related to the Las Vegas poker scene and supplement the journal entries with photos.
**********************
I'm sure there are some I forgot or lost (can anyone figure out BG's wacky archiving?), but these are the ones who I remember built the foundation. The number of new poker blogs really started to take off in the middle of 2004. By the end of the year, a few dozen of us had this crazy idea that we could get our own private tournament run in a live Vegas poker room, that we could get top pros to play, that we could get online poker rooms to give us free stuff, and that we could get other top pros to meet and talk with us before the tourney.
To this day, I'm not sure how much Guinness and SoCo it took for us to think any of this was possible. And yet, there we were. In the middle of an experience we would likely never experience again. From the insane limo ride to Sam's Town to doubling up on Max Pescatori to the depravity that Vegas drops on us, I'll never forget the first time I met the poker blogger community.
And now I can't wait to get back to Vegas.
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June 16, 2008
Pros In The WSOP Main Event
by G-Rob
A quick note of congratulations to a couple of friends who qualified for the Main Event of the WSOP this weekend.
PokerStars ran a 200 seat guarantee for the ME this weekend with satellites all week long.
Congratulations to IGGY and Brian the Pro who both won a seat.
We'll be sweating both and hoping Brian will be bringing some of that WSOP cash to a homegame near us.
I got the note from Brian early this morning:
Ship it... Won my WSOP 2008 Main event seat last night on that minefield called the 200 Main Event Seat Guarantee...
See some of you in Vegas sirs...
And here's Iggy's last post, short, sweet, and uber- in its own way:
Monday, June 16, 2008
Stars 8000 runners.
226 win a ME seat.
I played the best weak-tight poker of my life.
Nine drunken hours later.
On a whim, I'm in the WSOP Main Event.
# posted by Ignatious: 1:41 AM
I'm playing in a Stars freeroll for a seat next week. Wish me luck. I'd love to stack these fools in Vegas!
June 15, 2008
Gambling On The Internet
by G-Rob
Good god! Gambling leads to depression! It's true! There was a scientific study.
In the world of obvious investigation, this study "Gambling Linked To Depression" stands out.
Right now, I'm depressed about the fact that I got down to four handed in a sit-n-go and then went broke with a flopped set of Queens. He turned a set of Kings. Such is a depressing life.
That said, look at this awesome information:
GAMBLING is often a symptom of mental health problems, according to Melbourne research that could change the way problem gambling is treated.
The study of more than 2000 Victorians, conducted for the national depression initiative beyondblue, found that problem gamblers were more than 18 times more likely to experience severe psychological distress, more than four times more likely to abuse alcohol, and more than twice as likely to be depressed as people without a gambling problem.
The report, prepared by the Problem Gambling Research and Treatment Centre -- a joint venture between Melbourne and Monash universities and the Victorian Government -- found that more than 70% of problem gamblers were at risk of depression, half used alcohol at hazardous levels and more than a third had a "severe mental disorder."
DUH! I SAY DUH! Have you met the FWALGMAN?
Now, dear reader, a sampling of the OTHER gambling news on the web:
More in this Poker Blog! -->
NOW FROM THE "SURELY YOU'RE JOKING!" (AND DON'T CALL ME SHIRLEY!) FILE
This is from no less a gambling authority that the "Times of India." I get all my WSOP coverage from them.
"Drug in alcohol curbs gambling urge"
Seventy seven people participated in the double-blind, placebo controlled study. Fifty eight men and women took 50, 100 or 150 milligrams of naltrexone every day for 18 weeks.
Forty percent of the 49 participants who took the drug and completed the study quit gambling for at least one month. Their urge to gamble also significantly dropped in intensity and frequency.
The other 19 participants took a placebo. But only 10.5 per cent of those who took the placebo were able to abstain from gambling. Study participants were aged between 18 and 75 and reported gambling for 6 to 32 hours each week.
Dosage did not have an impact on the results, naltrexone was generally well tolerated, and men and women reported similar results.
"This is good news for people who have a gambling problem," said Jon Grant of University of Minnesota and principal investigator of the study. "This is the first time people have a proven medication that can help them get their behaviour under control."
The research has been published in the June issue of the Journal of Clinical Psychiatry.
First, let me suggest that if gambling 6 to 32 hours per week qualifies as "gambling addict," I have a very serious problem. I mean VERY serious. Second, I've never been in a casino when I said, "Wait! I don't feel like gambling! I'm too drunk!"
Never happened.
SERIOUSLY, I KID THE "TIMES OF INDIA".
Sadly, those of us who work in the news business are constantly under attack by the evil forces of PR. We take constant flak flak. Some of it is pretty standard crap. Some of it is about as useful as crap.
Here's a real gem from "NewsWireRelease":
"Wall Street Gambling Risks Surpasses Las Vegas"
From 2004-2007 Securities Arbitration Group founder Paul Young conducted a study of 400 adults he and his team interviewed in Las Vegas casinos. The criteria was that the subject is both a regular Las Vegas game player and gambler and, as well, that the person is a Wall Street investor.
"We went in with no preconceived notions. The group was evenly split between males and females, marital status was not an issue, and the age group was between 40-54. Self-stated income ranged from $50,000 to $750,000 annually. Survey participants must have been U.S. citizens. Further, the subjects must have been employed persons or, if married, one of the partners must have been gainfully employed or self-employed," said Young.
The findings: 77% stated that Wall Street investing carries with it a "significantly" higher degree of risk than Las Vegas gambling. This was the most telling conclusion. People, in the Securities Arbitration survey, did not and do not trust Wall Street.
Of those 77% who don't trust Wall Street, when asked the reason many cited the Enron debacle, the Internet/tech boomlet, and others indicated that Wall Streeters "look out for themselves first and are guided by commissions and fees in making recommendations."
Asked about the "burn" rate; that is: Have you been burned by your stockbroker or Wall Street brokerage, 34% said that they had. NO ONE of these 34% said that the did anything about it. When asked as to the reason, ALL said that they did not know that they had any rights or opportunities to resolve disputes with Wall Street. NOT ONE respondent had heard of the term "securities arbitration."
"I concluded that the findings confirmed what I have suspected for 20 years: That Wall Street is more of a risky gamble than Las Vegas in the eyes of most Americans, that burned or abused Main Street investors don't know of securities arbitration and their rights of recovery when and if they have been burned. We learned that so many people are ripped off by Wall Street and fail to take action, ergo they are guaranteed to lose twice," said Young.
I love this guy's conclusion. I asked gamblers in Las Vegas if Wall Street is riskier than gambling in Las Vegas. They said yes. Therefore, I conclude that everything gamblers in Las Vegas tell me is true.
Yeesh. The really scary part is that this kind of PR garbage always ends up making it into SOMEONE'S newscast. Scary Stuff.
Let's just say I'm not planning to turn my 401k over to anyone on a roulette hot streak.
NOW TO SEX, DRUGS, AND GAMBLING! WE SAVE THE BEST FOR LAST!
Just enjoy this headline from the London Telegraph :
"As the UK Economy Slows Should We Invest In Drink, Gambling, And Fornication?"
In a word,
YES.
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June 13, 2008
The Triple Crown: My Final Words
by Luckbox
I'm not sure I can write it any better than my good friend G-Rob. I suck at handicapping horses. And that pretty much puts me in the category as 95% of all handicappers out there.
Playing the ponies is hard. We're gambling on the whims of some big, dumb animals ridden by tiny men.
So what went wrong for me?
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The Kentucky Derby
Frankly, I didn't spend a whole lot of time on this race. I didn't exactly make that clear in my post, although in ranking the factors that lead me to bet Momba, I put both a random text message from BG and the random selection of Lady Luck above my handicapping.
Monba finished last. Big Brown ran a remarkable race from the outside post.
The Preakness
I didn't bet this race. It didn't make much sense to because Big Brown was facing one of the weakest Triple Crown fields in history. Instead of handicapping it, I gave you all a hot tip on Casino Drive in the Peter Pan Stakes.
Big Brown dominated the Preakness as expected and Casino Drive won the Peter Pan Stakes earning me a couple hundred bucks.
The Belmont
G-Rob seems to delight in the fact that my horse didn't even get to run the race. He seems to suggest that being scratched demonstrates my inability as a handicapper. If anything, I look at this race and think what could have been. Big Brown died on the track (well, not Racing Belles-like dying). I didn't expect that. I did expect, however, that Big Brown would not win this race. Had Casino Drive not been scratched, I'm fairly certain he'd have won it.
Instead, Da'Tara won. A horse that didn't seem like it belonged. It was the longest shot in the field for a reason. In the end, he got to run clean without any real competition. That's probably just the kind of race he needed.
***********************
I didn't make any money on the Triple Crown this year. I don't think I won anything last year, but I can't remember. Two years ago, I hit on Jazil in the Belmont for about $1250. BG and I haven't yet hit a Pick 6, but we've come moderately close. I hit a Pick 4 this year for about $1800. I also had a couple of really successful days at Evangeline Downs mixed in with some average ones.
Picking the ponies isn't easy. But I'm certainly not done sticking my neck out with bold predictions. Perhaps I should add more disclaimers like, "Don't bet my picks," but that won't be much fun for you on those days I do hit!
Now I'm just crossing my fingers that Casino Drive is back on American soil for the Breeders Cup at Santa Anita in late October...
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June 12, 2008
Giving due the Godfather of Short-Stack Poker
by Otis
Was it really only two and half years ago? It seems like an eternity since I splashed around in a pool of my own hubris. It was as comfortable as the good Vegas beds and as dangerous as putting your money on Big Brown. Poker felt like such a sure thing. Everything made sense. The hours spent were profitable. The handle on the game was like the baseball bat owned since childhood. I remember thinking, "Damn, I could do nothing but this if I really wanted to." Blind arrogance is such a fun place to live. Every decision seems perfect, whether inside the game or out.
I don't live there anymore, for better or worse. Over the past 30 months, I've been forced to confront that I was never as good as I thought. And, even if I was, it doesn't matter. It took me too long to realize that the game changed and I didn't change with it. Like the guy who is still trying to figure out why he can't sell his warehouse full of cassette tapes, I'm forced to sit here and figure out if I can re-tool myself to catch up with two years of online poker's evolution.
Why do I think of it today? Well, a lot of reasons, I guess. But what really forced me to admit it out loud was a guy I made fun of in 2006. His screen name was one of my favorites ever: w00t4d0nks.
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Back then, I was still a regular at Party's $10/$20 NL game. I'd done pretty well for myself there for quite a while and, in an act of pure cockiness, called out w00t4d0nks in public. Here in the South we call that "showing your ass." In the post Shortbuy City, I rambled on for an age about one particular guy who bought into my regular game for 25% of the max buy-in. I made assumptions on top of assumptions about the guy's MO and essentially called him a gambling dumbass. I based a lot of what I wrote on fairly limited data and a lot of arrogance. I wrote, in part:
I guess it just surprises me that with all the good poker information out there, some people are still treating poker like a gamble instead of an ATM. What's more, I'm starting to see more and more of these guys in the middle no-limit area. It's both fascinating and disturbing to watch. It's like watching Sammy Farha flip a coin for $25K. Watching gamblers can be fun. Playing poker against them can be more fun.
I'll be honest. The passing years, the end of Party, and my gradual decline into poker loathing had made me completely forget about w00t4d0nks. Over the years, I've noticed a lot more people at all levels of the game playing short-stacks. There are now scads of web sites and training grounds for the short-stack strategy. There are legions of players out there who do nothing but multi-table with short-stacks all day long. They are winning players against... well, against people like me who failed to adjust.
So, imagine my surprise when I ran into w00t4d0nks again--not at the tables, not at a bar, but in a comment on this very poker blog. When I saw the name in the comments, I immediately remembered the guy (who for some reason is etched into my brain in one particular seat at the Party Poker tables).
Here is w00t4d0nks note in its entirety:
Hey Otis. I just got a big chuckle out of one of your old blog entries and thought I'd write you a thanks. At the time of w00ts appearance on the Party 10/20 tables I was pretty well known under a different screen name as one of the big winning super regulars. I developed the short stack strategy after listening to people complain about the guys doing it(who were terrible poker players btw). I figured I'd give it a shot since I always experiment with out of the box strats.
The strategy was ridiculously successful and actually made me more $/hour than full buyin. It was at least $500/hour and I think was at about $1k/hour on nights and weekends towards the end but then party closed(i've still got the PTDB somewhere I think). There were so many regular ABC multi tablers in those days that it was incredibly simple. What noone realized was that I was using Pokertracker with a HUD and customized my push ranges to each player. I was picking up $100 with no showdown like it raining benjamins.
Anyways, I always joke with my friends about being the godfather of shortstacking and not getting credit for it so I thought this blog was a riot =)
w00t(I shove)4d0nks
After seeing the comment, I read it twice and tried to decide how I felt. After a few minutes, I knew exactly. It was if I just read, "Hey, Otis. Remember that hot girl you were dating in college? Yeah, really hot, huh? Well, here's the thing. The whole time you were dating, I was pouring it to her behind your back. We ended up getting married. She still talks about how you couldn't get her off."
Yeah, a little more than humbling.
Looking at it much later, I can still say short-stacking is not the most exciting version of poker, nor one that sounds like much fun to play. That admitted, poker is not really about having fun, is it? It's not about mainlining adrenaline and getting your rocks off on the stress. It's about making money. There are some people out there like w00t4d0nks who apparently made it work for them. Woot, if you're still reading, let us know how you're doing now. It might be instructive.
In the meantime, I'm wallowing in a different pool now. A dip in Olympic-sized Self Loathing isn't nearly as much fun, but it's a lot more real than blind ignorance. Time, I've found, is as much a magnifying glass as it is a mirror. Looking back, indeed, I can see a reflection of a very big donkey.
C'est moi.
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June 11, 2008
Moonshine Your Light On Me... Break The Law Like An Honest Man
by G-Rob
I once wrote a couple of posts here about a famous mountain moonshiner named Popcorn Sutton. Popcorn's had some legal trouble lately, in part because he didn't seem to object to allowing TV folks a look into the way he makes illegal likker.
So I took particular interest a story we aired a few days ago about a moonshiner in Spartanburg County who was arrested for the second time. He's an old retiree who sells decent booze to pay for his wife's cancer treatment. When we asked his lifelong friend about the poor bastard he said something that seemed funny at first, "He's just like... a human being -- an honest human being. Well, he's not honest in the eyes of the law, but as far as we know it, Charlie Martin's No. 1."
If you play poker a stilly statement like that actually makes a lot of sense.
More in this Poker Blog! -->
HONEST LIARS
As a journalist, I'd say an honest reputation is one of my most valued assets. But I'm a liar at the table. People expect that.
In fact, the quickest way to tilt a table is to tell the truth a few times. Even honesty is deceptive when you use it properly. We all appreciate the value of deception in the game of poker.
That said, there is nothing that will drive you from the good graces of your tablemates faster than a reputation for "shooting angles" which stops just shy of calling someone a cheater outright.
I've been accused of it at times, but I like to think I shoot it straight. I'll play the meta-game sometimes but never outright break the rules. And I hate an angle shooter as much as anyone.
SOME EXAMPLES
Something everyone in our homegames does, and I've seen it plenty on TV too, is call an honest two pair.
For example:
I have pocket 2s. The board is K 6 Q A K. I DO have two pair. So when I get called on a bet I could, and actually have, just said "two pair" without showing the hand. It's true. Although the insinuation is that I'm much stronger than I am. I suppose the goal is to make the opponent muck without bothering to see that my 2-pair is an underpair to everything on the board.
I don't think that is necessarily shooting an angle.
On the other hand, we have a kid who sometimes shows up at homegames who will try something a little more sinister, and less honest.
He may have J9o on a board of J, 7, 4, K, A.
Once called down to the river he'll declare "Top Pair" without showing his hand. What he "meant to say" was "top pair on the flop" and it isn't top pair anymore. Again this is designed to make an opponent muck without seeing his cards.
It is also being a liar. And cheating.
Otis wrote a great post about a similar bastard we once encountered in Tunica called, appropriately enough. The Angle Shooter.
I hate cheaters. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that of all types of people, a gambler hates a dishonest man the most. That's how we roll.
I totally understand what the moonshiner's friend was trying to say.
As for our local angle-shooting friend, he played his last hand at one underground game after pushing all his chips in on the host who immediately called.
Angle-shooter then pulled his chips back and started wondering aloud how much he wanted to bet, as if he was only CONSIDERING going all in.
The operator of this undergound game allowed our angle shooter to pull his chips back.
Then he cashed him out.
And banned him from the game forever.
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June 10, 2008
Playboy Otis
by Otis
I wish Easycure hadn't posted this today and spilled the beans so soon. I didn't even have the chance to tell my wife about the opportunity first. Since the investigative reporter dug up the story, I guess I can cop to it now.
Really, who among us doesn't want to watch me with a playmate. I mean, I do, so why wouldn't you?
You can get more of the story over at A Moment With...
June 8, 2008
How To Win At The Track
by G-Rob
Some people are just unlucky. Some folks don't have the skills.
Some people handicap races like our friend Luckbox.
At first blush it may seem like the 'Box is lousy at this kind of thing. If that's your feeling now, you've not thought about it from a distance.
Step back from those busted picks and wasted dollars. Look at the immense beauty of the whole body of Luckbox disaster.
Check this out:
More in this Poker Blog! -->
The Santa Anita Pick 6 Ticket
The Luckbox launched this venture in early April of this year. We start with a helpful advice column with the colorful title "How to Win the Pick 6"
It starts with a bang. Qualifications listed as such:
"How to Win the Pick 6
by Luckbox
Full disclosure: I've never won the Pick 6."
Good stuff!
Once that standard is set we then recruit donors for a Pick 6 ticket with an interesting qualifier:
"The Santa Anita Pick 6 Ticket
by Luckbox
After a few days of handicapping, the picks are in. BG and I have put together a ticket we believe has a great chance of bringing in a payday. Interestingly, we were on the same page in almost every race. That doesn't always happen. We're hoping that means we're locked in and not that we're both idiots."
I think we ALL hope you aren't both idiots. You've spent OUR money!
But what are the results? Fear not, those are fast... and not all that shocking,
The FIRST RACE ON THE PICK 6 TICKET?
So without further ado, the picks:
Race 6: 7f Clm50000
2 Switzerland, 7 Sorcerers Spell, 9 Hit and Hope
BG and I were in agreement that Sorcerer's Spell and Hit and Hope are the top choices in this race. After getting through the whole card, we had enough in our budget to add another horse and it was Switzerland just ahead of the 8 horse, Exceeding.
RESULTS: It's over before it begins. The last horse we left off was Exceeding. He was actually my Dad's favorite in this race, but was just left off the ticket by BG and I. Hit and Hope ran up front most of the way, but faded. The favorite, Switzerland, was never a factor. Socerers Spell ran one of the worst races I've seen in awhile. Started well behind the pack. And I mean WELL. Was forced to unwind really early and came around the turn 12-15 wide. No one can win running a race like that. Very disappointing.
YAY!
Even Luckbox was temproarily discouraged. His post the next day?
How to Win the Pick 4
Good TIMES! And fear not, you can't keep a luckbox down!
THE RUN FOR THE ROSES! THE KENTUCKY DERBY!
This is where the true genius takes shape. There was a huge 20 horse field at the post in this race. 20 Horses! Picking a winner would be hard! Which means picking the OPPOSITE of the winner wil be really hard too.
Check out the picks from our post "Handicapping the Kentucky Derby":
"Here is your Kentucky Derby winner.
Monba"
How did Monba do?
20th
out of 20.
See? The OPPOSITE of the winner! Here's the rationale:
"It doesn't take much skill, however, to list 10 horses that could win a race. What you want is the winner. And that winner will be Monba.
I anticipate Monba getting out good from the 14th post, following Bob Black Jack who may be the early leader. Look for Monba to settle in a few off the rail by the first turn. He'll be in trouble if he lets those big horses outside of him get a jump on him, but I think he'll be fine.
By the stretch, Pyro will be passing Bob Black Jack, Big Brown will be rallying from well back on the outside, Colonel John will begin his move from the middle of the pack, but Monba will be best positioned to get the win. He'll duel with Pyro, before winning by a length, Colonel John will get up for third, Big Brown fourth and Bob Black Jack fifth.
There it is. The Blue Grass Stakes winner will make it happen again."
For the Record, "Bob Black Jack" finished 16th.
"Pyro" finished 8th.
"Colonel John" was 6th.
This post is rife with sheer genius. Take it all in:
"Big Brown should go off as the second favorite. He also has a shot at winning this race, but coming out of the 20th post will be more than he can overcome. He'll expend a lot of energy to get himself closer to the rail and the four horses inside of him are too good to allow him that room. This is the best horse in the field, but he won't win."
Big Brown DID win. By a LOT!
GOOD TIMES!
What about the Belmont?
On May 10th Luckbox dove into the complicated world of picking the Belmont. And this one is a doozy.
After Luckbox posted his "Hot Belmont Tip:"
Hot Belmont Tip
by Luckbox
I'll keep this short for those of you who don't care about horse racing (and therefore, don't care about making awesome amounts of money based on my handicapping insights!).
I'm eyeing a horse you probably haven't heard of. And his name is poker-blogger worthy, Casino Drive.
I wrote an e-mail to Otis and Badblood wondering if they knew a bookie who would give me a line on "Casino Drive" bursting into flames in the starting gate. No takers. They knew the Luckbox was involved. In fact, so did the poor horse's trainers. In order to keep their colt from becoming a spontaneous barbeque, the horse was scratched from the lineup and skipped the race altogether.
Good Move!
Now the actual Belmont Picks... keeping in mind these were posted when the field was still at 10, before "Casino Drive" was scratched.
First, a recap of the DOOMED Horse:
5 Casino Drive: I've written about this horse before. My Hot Belmont Tip from May 10th told you that this would be the horse to watch. Despite being lightly raced (just two career starts), Casino Drive is my pick. When horses lack real experience at a certain distance, it pays to look at breeding. Casino Drive's is impeccable. A sore left hoof is concerning (there is a slight chance he won't be able to run), but I'm confident he'll be on the track when tomorrow comes and he's far and away your best chance at getting a good price on a winner.
Morning Line: 7-2
Predicted Finish: 1st
Poor bastard never had a chance!
Then another horse stepped up to take the "Luckbox Favorite" mantle:
1 Big Brown: Enough has been written about just how good he is. Undefeated in 4 starts with the closest win being 4 3/4 lenghts in the Derby. One of only two horses in the field to post a triple digit Beyer speed figure. Seemingly had no trouble with the Preakness distance.
Morning Line: 2-5
Predicted Finish: 2nd
Keep in mind that "2nd" is a first-place prediction once "Casino Drive" ran for safety. How did Big Brown do in the remaining 9 horse field?
9th!
Did you know 2 horses TIED for 3rd place in the Belmont? It's true! "Anak Natal" and "Ready's Echo" both came in 3rd! Did the Luckbox see that coming?
In a word, No.
8 Anak Nakal: I'm not sure why, but this horse seems to be getting a lot of buzz going into this race. Seventh in the Derby and 5th in the Wood Memorial don't exactly suggest Anak Nakal is ready to win the Belmont. I'd be surprised if he made a strong push.
Morning Line: 30-1
Predicted Finish: 7th
9 Ready's Echo: Like Da' Tara, this horse is completely outclassed in this field. Last time out, he finished 6 1/2 lengths behind Casino Drive in the Peter Pan Stakes. It would take quite a step up to contend this time out.
Morning Line: 30-1
Predicted Finish: 9th
At least Luckbox didn't pick either of those horses to finish LAST. That would be embarrasing. Who DID Luckbox pick to finish last?
6 Da' Tara: Sorry, just not a contender. At all. This horse has been completely overmatched by this level of talent every time out. Da' Tara would need a perfect run and a lot of luck to even factor in the superfecta.
Morning Line: 30-1
Predicted Finish: 10th
Da'Tara?
Da'Tara won the Belmont.
SO GENIUS! YOU CAN'T LOSE
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June 7, 2008
Casino Drive (Scratched)
by Luckbox
I'm crushed.
This was the horse. The horse to beat the unbeatable Big Brown. The horse to make history by being the third straight horse from the same mare to win the Belmont Stakes. The horse to make me a little cash.
And now, he's scratched. A bad left hind hoof didn't heal fast enough. After this morning's workout, Casino Drive was clearly favoring that leg. Forcing him to run would have risked serious injury. It's the right and responsible decision. If it were Rick Dutrow, he'd probably pump the horse full of some kind of illegal pain killer just to get him on the track. Hell, it wouldn't shock me if Dutrow put a Jeff Gillooly-Tonya Harding style hit on Casino Drive.
So throw out all my bets (I'll get a refund on each of them). If you're betting this race, Big Brown is going to win it. He'll go off at somewhere around 1-9, if you're lucky. He may end up being Belmont's biggest favorite ever. He'll win this race handily. It's just not worth putting a win bet on anyone else.
If you do want to bet stupid and hope to hit the lottery, try Denis of Cork or Tale of Ekati. I just don't think Anak Nakal or Macho Again can do it. I'll probably try a few trifectas and superfectas. That's the only place to make any money today.
June 6, 2008
How to Bet the Belmont Stakes
by Luckbox
Ten horses are about to run a race unlike any race they've ever run and likely unlike any race they will ever run again. Horses simply do not race 1 1/2 miles on dirt. It's just that simple. No major race in the United States goes that distance unless it's on turf, and even that is rare. Up until now, these 3-year old horses have rarely had an oppurtunity to go more than 1 1/4 mile, and that was only in the Preakness which ran 1 3/16 mile.
And that is one of the major reasons why we haven't seen a Triple Crown horse since Affirmed 30 years ago. In those three decades, 11 different horses arrived at the Belmont Stakes with a chance to make history. And all 11 lost. In 1988, Real Quiet lost by just a nose. In 1999, Charismatic lead in the final furlong but broke his leg and finished third. From 2002-2004, we had War Emblem, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones. All great horses, and none closed the deal.
So how does this help you bet the Belmont?
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It doesn't really. It would be nice to say, "Well, no one wins the Triple Crown so Big Brown won't win." It's not that easy. As I've already said, this race is different. No horse can truly be prepared for what they'll be facing. So who is most prepared?
1 Big Brown: Enough has been written about just how good he is. Undefeated in 4 starts with the closest win being 4 3/4 lenghts in the Derby. One of only two horses in the field to post a triple digit Beyer speed figure. Seemingly had no trouble with the Preakness distance.
Morning Line: 2-5
Predicted Finish: 2nd
2 Gudalcanal: A surprise last-minute entry, this horse is the only in the field to have run in a 1 1/2 mile race. Last time out, Guadalcanal finished 2nd by a nose over the turf at Churchill Downs. But how much does experience really count here? Not nearly enough.
Morning Line: 50-1
Predicted Finish: 8th
3 Macho Again: In a weak Preakness field, this horse placed, 5 1/4 lengths behind Big Brown. Unfortunately for his owner, I believe that's the high-water mark for his career. This field is better.
Morning Line: 20-1
Predicted Finish: 5th
4 Denis of Cork: Halfway through the Kentuck Derby, this horse sat in 13th place. When the race ended, Denis of Cork was in third. It was an impressive stretch run although it doesn't necessarily suggest he is in any position to out-duel Big Brown. He will, however, be a popular choice for trifectas.
Morning Line: 12-1
Predicted Finish: 3rd
5 Casino Drive: I've written about this horse before. My Hot Belmont Tip from May 10th told you that this would be the horse to watch. Despite being lightly raced (just two career starts), Casino Drive is my pick. When horses lack real experience at a certain distance, it pays to look at breeding. Casino Drive's is impeccable. A sore left hoof is concerning (there is a slight chance he won't be able to run), but I'm confident he'll be on the track when tomorrow comes and he's far and away your best chance at getting a good price on a winner.
Morning Line: 7-2
Predicted Finish: 1st
6 Da' Tara: Sorry, just not a contender. At all. This horse has been completely overmatched by this level of talent every time out. Da' Tara would need a perfect run and a lot of luck to even factor in the superfecta.
Morning Line: 30-1
Predicted Finish: 10th
7 Tale of Ekati: Coming off a nice win in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, this horse seem primed to contend in the Derby. A fourth place finish may sound good, but Tale of Ekati was 11 lengths back of Big Brown. I don't see him fighting for a win tomorrow, but he could be in the mix from show on down.
Morning Line: 20-1
Predicted Finish: 4th
8 Anak Nakal: I'm not sure why, but this horse seems to be getting a lot of buzz going into this race. Seventh in the Derby and 5th in the Wood Memorial don't exactly suggest Anak Nakal is ready to win the Belmont. I'd be surprised if he made a strong push.
Morning Line: 30-1
Predicted Finish: 7th
9 Ready's Echo: Like Da' Tara, this horse is completely outclassed in this field. Last time out, he finished 6 1/2 lengths behind Casino Drive in the Peter Pan Stakes. It would take quite a step up to contend this time out.
Morning Line: 30-1
Predicted Finish: 9th
10 Icabad Crane: There's a little to like about this horse. His Beyer speed figures have climbed each of the last two races including a strong third place in the Preakness. I suppose with another step forward, Icabad Crane could be in the mix, but I just don't see it happening.
Morning Line: 20-1
Predicted Finish 6th
***********************************
Big Brown is a great, great horse. As much as I detest trainer Rick Dutrow, it can't overshadow the talent Big Brown brings to the track.
(Digression. Why do I hate Rick Dutrow? It's not just that he's a loudmouth blowhard. It's that he's a cheater. From ESPN.com:
And he's been fined or suspended at least once every year since 2000 for doping issues. In 2000, a barn search in New York produced "an injectible vitamin which is forbidden." In '01, a horse had excessive Lasix -- an anti-bleeding medication -- in its system. In '02, Dutrow "failed to follow Lasix procedures." In '03, a horse tested positive for Mepivacaine. From '04 through an '08 fine in Florida, there were citations regarding Lasix, Clenbuterol, Phenylbutazone and Oxyphenbutazone. He served a 60-day suspension in 2005 after two of his horses tested positive for banned substances and for a claiming violation. Then, in 2007, he served an additional 14-day suspension and was fined $25,000 for violating conditions of his suspension by having contact with his stable.
He puts his horses in danger by doing anything to win. Big Brown has been pumped with a steroid every month. It's a steroid that is currently banned in 10 states, but not in the states where Triple Crown races are held. But I digress...)
Big Brown will likely win the Triple Crown. I think that's fair to say. He'll go off at less than even money (I'm guessing no better than 1-5). But I'm not betting him. Big Brown was as close to a sure thing in the Preakness a few weeks back as you could possibly be. He raced against a weak field that was unprepared to challenge him. That's not the case this time around. Plus, as ESPN.com points out, there may be a real effort by other jockeys and/or trainers to prevent a Triple Crown winner.
In other words, put your money on Casino Drive.
Here's what I'm betting:
$20 Win: 5 Casino Drive
$10 Exacta Box: 5 Casino Drive/1 Big Brown
$2 Exacta: 5 Casino Drive with 3 Macho Again, 4 Denis of Cork and 7 Tale of Ekati
$1 Trifecta: 5 Casino Drive and 1 Big Brown with 5 Casino Drive and 1 Big Brown with 3 Macho Again, 4 Denis of Cork and 7 Tale of Ekati
$1 Superfecta: 5 Casino Drive and 1 Big Brown with 5 Casino Drive and 1 Big Brown with 3 Macho Again, 4 Denis of Cork and 7 Tale of Ekati with 3 Macho Again, 4 Denis of Cork, 7 Tale of Ekati and 10 Icabad Crane
That's a total of $70. I'll let you know how I make out!
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June 5, 2008
Misreads And The Profits They Entail
by G-Rob
I should feel more guilty about those times I play badly and win. I should. I don't. I've played well and lost too. These things happen.
The key is not letting those mixed results distort our perceptions.
Here's an example from GucciRick's on Monday night:
I'm on the button with Kh9h and Otis is the small blind. I've button straddled and Otis limps in from my left. DammitBobby and Frank the Tank both muck before Dr. John raises from $5 to $20.
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One caller to me and I call as does Otis.
The flop is 7h 7c 5h.
Otis checks and John leads into the $82 pot for $40. I instantly put him on a pocket pair that's smaller than Q but bigger than 7. I'm certain my K, 9, and flush draw are good.
What's more, during the action to that point, Dr. John has shown me that he will almost certainly pay off the flush if it hits. He has about $300 behind.
I call.
Then Otis check-raises all in. Otis has a relative short-stack here and his raise is for another $125 or so.
I put Otis on the 7. I figure it's a suited connector that got lucky.
Now Dr. John just calls. If I trust my reads, I've got the 9 outs vs. Otis and 12 against John. I'm not only getting decent odds from the pot, but because I'm sure John will pay off the flush I'm getting decent implied odds too.
I call.
The turn is a 9. Now I've two additional outs against both players. Lucky for me, John checks my card and I check behind.
The river is another 9. I have top boat. Now it's time to see if I get paid.
John checks. I put him all in and after climbing far enough into the tank that we assembled a search party... he finds a way to fold his pocket 10s.
Otis shows Ah10h. I scoop.
NOW
...there are several places I may have played that poorly. Partly because I failed to consider the broader range of possible Otis holdings. If I'm sure of my read on John and IF I correctly read Otis' hand, I CAN NOT CALL!
My misread helped me get lucky and win a big pot.
That's not skill. I don't credit it as such.
I've won money in my last three live games. Two of them were very good nights. Yet I'm confident I only played great poker ONCE. One of those games, a night at Frank the Tank's I got lucky twice, with a huge two outer and a very poor call by Otis. He's usually smarter than that.
On the two outer, I called a raise in position with 44. The raiser had actually, limp re-raised in early position but he does play a WIDE range of hands.
The flop is A, Q, 7. He checks. This is obvious no? This guy fires a c-bet with kings and then prays for a fold.
Instead, like an idiot, I push. He insta-calls with AQ. Top Two. Let's not wonder about the wisdom of limp re-raising with AQo. I'm lucky that's all he had.
I'm LUCKIER when the turn is a 4.
Clearly, after his check on the flop, I get his money on the turn if I'm smart enough to check behind. That would NOT be a huge suckout. The way I won it was. I played very poorly and won.
I am NOT playing good poker but I'm winning.
That's not really what matters I suppose.
But then again, it is.
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June 4, 2008
Rizen goes to Ultimate Bet
by Otis
I've been on record for the past couple of years.
I think Eric "Rizen" Lynch is one of the best people in poker. He knows the game, he's a great person, and he has a respect for his role in the poker community.
I subscribe to Eric's RSS feed, despite my disdain for truncated traffic generation summaries. Today, I read the headline "My personal comments about the UB signing" and I was sure Eric would be weighing in on Cliff "JohnnyBax" Josephy's signing with the oft-maligned online poker site.
Imagine my surprise when I learned one of my favorite poker players is signing with the site everybody loves to hate.
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If you've never been fortunate enough to meet Eric, you should know he is a guy you will like. He's friendly, humble, and a good family man. He is also a stellar poker player. I can't help but envy his ability, discipline, and balance. He, like many of you, writes a blog (Rizen Poker) and gives more insight into his game than most pros would offer.
So, inside of a week or so, two people who command respect in the poker community have joined up with Ulimate Bet, a site that not only has been torn apart in recent months due to the sickening revelation that the site was in fact rigged, but also has been the subject of many our rants and raves here (see the most recent Up For Poker Ultimate Bet Cheating post).
The easist explanation for anything in the poker world is money. Why else would someone like Eric sign up with what is without question the most controversial and broken site in all of online poker? Here's the thing. In his explanation, Eric denies he is selling out.
"I've also made sure that all of the business decisions I've made in my life are things that I can be proud of, even if that's meant potentially costing myself and my family money. I am by no means independently wealthy, but I did not *need* this deal from a financial perspective...Lastly, I would proudly like to announce that a significant portion of my proceeds from my relationship with Ultimate Bet will be going towards charity.
Both JohnnyBax and Rizen are now UB pitchmen. Both assert that there is more going on behind the scenes than we know and that someday it will all make sense.
It's an odd place for a cynic like me to be. Everything in my gut tells me to stay as far away from UB as possible (haven't played there in more than a year, near as I can tell). Everything about celebrity endorsements tells me to take it with a grain of salt.
That said, when somebody I deeply respect makes a move like this, it makes me question everything.
Do I believe my gut and follow the exodus away from UB? Do I believe the people I respect that Ultimate Bet is making a real effort to make good on past mistakes?
For now, I'm doing nothing. While not the style of people who are huge successes, sometimes it pays to just wait and see.
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June 3, 2008
Lady Luck Answers
by Luckbox
So I spent a good deal of time trying to decide just how I would approach my wife with the idea of a guy's only trip to Vegas. In just four months of marriage, I haven't had a lot of time to build up trade-worthy capital.
So it went a little like this...
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"Hey, baby. The G-Vegas guys are going to Vegas at the end of the month," I told her.
"That sounds like fun... you should go, too," she responded.
And that was that. The good news is that Lady Luck really, really likes the G-Vegas guys since there were such great guests at our wedding. She also knows that despite their proclivity to drunken insanity, that I have a unique ability to weather their storms.
The final details are as such:
I fly out Thursday June 26th, landing in Vegas shortly before midnight.
I fly back Sunday June 29th, leaving Vegas just after 6pm.
That's two and a half days of poker and stupid table games. I may actually even partake of a cold beverage or two. Lady Luck even told me she doesn't care if I hit a strip club, although that's not in the plans.
I'm really looking forward to seeing the hard-working WSOP bloggers (and Michalski). I frankly can't remember the last time I saw Pauly and Change100. I've even heard it's a certain blogger's birthday and I can't imagine why he wouldn't want to celebrate it in Vegas!
My only disappointment is that I won't get a chance to be part of the big blogger gathering kicking off this weekend. Instead, I'll be at the ultimate tourist destination (Mobile, AL) for a news director's conference. Bet you all wish you were there!
And for the rest of you who will be in Sin City at the end of this month...
See you in Vegas!!!!
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June 2, 2008
Gambling holes
by Otis
G-Rob and I missed the driveway into the pub and busted a U-turn in the middle of a busy highway. Our tires crunched on rock as we slid into the small gravel parking lot. The entire bar could've fit in the downstairs floor of my house. It was barely big enough to hold G-Rob's hair, let alone his ego and my enormous sense of self-loathing.
It was a Friday night around 7pm. Nobody reasonable goes to places like this, least of all suburban fathers with mortgages and firm grasps on their drinking problem. No, these places are for professional drunks who don't quaff martinis before sundown and certainly don't have many people who give a damn or dram where they are.
We two suburban fathers, however, find ourselves in these dives more often than we do the trendy or chain bars in town. We look for out of-the-way Quonset huts and cinder block buildings where the floor really does smell like beer and the people only look up from their drinks to make sure you aren't the police.
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I picked the place Friday because Mapquest said it was the closest possible drinking establishment to a poker game G-Rob and I were hitting. Trendy names and dueling pianos be damned, this place simply called itself the name of its city and "Pub."
I knew I would love it before we even sat down. My belief was confirmed when the bleach-blonde 40-something behind the bar gave G-Rob and me a look that said, "Oh, give me a fucking break."
"IDs," she sighed.
See, it's not that people in places like this don't like you. It's that they don't like the idea of you. You are something new, something they can't immediately trust, something they have to work to know. That kind of activity is not what dive bars are about. The places where I feel most welcome are the places where I can walk into an established routine, even if it is not my own.
I stuck my hand in my pocket and pulled out my drivers license. "I have gray in my beard," I said as I handed it in the direction of the woman's ample bosom.
She looked me straight in the eye. "I don't care," she said.
The two beers we ordered were cold and appeared immediately in front of us. The bar was comfortable and everybody except G-Rob and I knew each other.
I caught G-Rob's eye and nodded toward the back of the room where seven or eight guys were sitting around the table. Someone was dealing from a red deck. No chips were in sight, but it was obvious the game was serious. No matter they were drinking some concoction made out of Crown Royal and Rumplemintz, they were into what they're doing.
"Playing cards back there," I said aloud, half to point out the obvious and half to see if the bartender would eavesdrop and fill me in on what they were doing.
G-Rob did a half-turn on his barstool and took a look.
"Somebody just passed some money across the table," he said.
We had a poker game to go to. It was a safe place where there was no chance of robbery or arrest. There was no chance of cheating and no chance of getting knifed in the gravel parking lot. Still, we were intrigued.
G-Rob noted someone had just mentioned trip queens getting beat by trip aces.
Poker.
"Are they playing on paper?" I wondered aloud.
It seemed like such a game would be difficult to pull off, especially for a group of guys hopped up on peppermint schnapps.
"It's Guts," said the guy sitting on the other side of me. I came to think of him as our new best friend.
This is how you survive in a dive bar. This is how you survive in a gambling hole. You find one guy who is willing to let you in and show you the ropes. If you decide you can trust him, you're good as long as you want to be.
"Four card Guts," he said, "With a discard. $20 a hand. You can drop if you want to, but if you're in, you're in."
He went on to tell us that winning and losing $500 is not impossible in the game. He further told us the game runs nearly every night and well into the dark hours.
This is the beauty of gambling holes. You will not find people playing cards at the Applebees bar. Liberty Taproom may have a great selection of beer, but the chances of rolling dice for "however much cash is in this envelope" are slim to none. This little pub, though, was all about gambling--cops, preachers, and wives be damned.
If we'd stayed a week, we could've played four card Guts with the drunk and sunburned. We could've played a game in which a winning raffle ticket earns you a roll of the dice and a successful roll of the dice earns you a draw from a deck and a successful joker-pull from the deck can earn you...
"I won $7,000 one night," our new friend said. "They had to walk me out to my car." And I believed him, because there is no real reason to make up something that ridiculous.
We didn't have a week. We had but an hour, time to roll the dice for the envelope money, time to laugh at the guy at the end of the bar who said, "Do you know the odds of actually--oh, nevermind."
We knew the odds and we didn't care. The dice could've been weighted for all we cared. There could've been only deuces and threes on them. We still filled the cup, slammed the dice on the bar, and sighed happily when we lost. It was action, in a public place, where nearly everything that was happening was in some way illegal.
It was perfect.
We walked back out into the sunlight on the way to our surburban poker game where the table stakes were much higher, but the romance was the same as an entree from Ruby Tuesday.
No, we don't haunt or hunt in the underground games much anymore, but the glimmer in both of our eyes as we finished our beers was enough to say without saying, "Damn, we would if we could."
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June 1, 2008
Still The Worst, Still, Ultimate Bet
by G-Rob
I've written about it twice before and, frankly, if you were still playing at Ultimate Bet, you are a damned fool. The site is lousy and the software sucks. There is poor, or non-existent, customer service.
Oh, and it IS actaully rigged.
Before I get all cranked up, check out the posts I wrote 3 full years ago!
Ultimate Bet Cheats On A Tournament
Ultimate Bet Has Bad Tournament Software
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Here's the thing about online poker, it's worth keeping in mind, most of the people who play it are morons. That is less a function of poker itself than a reflection of people in general. For example, a recent Pew survey found that 10% of American voters still believe Barack Obama is a muslim.
18% of the people in that same survey think the Sun revolves around the Earth.
Because they are morons.
The Ultimate Bet Cheating Scandal broke at the end of last year with allegations of "insider access" similar to what happened at the cheat-plagued Absolute Poker. In a "Pocket 5s" forum post back in November there was already some insinuation:
Here are the most interesting points for our discussion:
4. A higher level executive was fired not to long ago, because her 19 year old son, who she got a job at UB, was caught cheating games at the UB office. It is unclear to my source if holecards were able to be seen during the hand, but it is a possibility. He definitely was cheating customers somehow, maybe a cobination of the above things mentioned at the very least.
edit: Another close, reliable source has just talked to me and told me "the woman's son had "administrative access" which let him see hole cards." and that the source "wouldn't be surprised if administrative access still exists" The person went on to say "there's also evidence that at least a couple months ago AJ (Green) was overseeing day to day operations"
5. "Someone" was brought on board by UB to help clean up the site. He figured out the problem was that they were using a version of the software from 1998 that had security holes in it (i.e. no security firewalls were/could be put in place) that couldn't be fixed without a complete overhaul of the software, which was estimated at costing 6 million dollars. UB decided it was not in their best interests to upgrade the software.
Now, because most poker writers are not journalists but, rather, shameless hucksters for one or another billion dollar corportation there is little real investigation into this cheating scandals online.
The good stuff is still in the forums.
I read through this entire discussion again after finding a link on Pauly's site.
I HIGHLY reccommend blasting through this 2+2 thread.
Here's a snippet from the Introductory post:
Several million dollars were stolen and the evidence in the HSNL thread indicates very strongly that:
UltimateBet has known about the cheating for at least nine months.
UltimateBet knew about but did not make any attempt to acknowledge the cheating before it was exposed on 2+2.
People who worked for UltimateBet facilitated the cheating.
UltimateBet actively took steps to cover up these crimes and thwart the investigation of this scandal.
Additionally:
UltimateBet did not make any public statements or acknowledge that cheating had occurred until March 6th, 2008, three full months after the crimes became public.
UltimateBet has not reached out to any of the players who were stolen from (many of whom still don't know that they were cheated). When players read the HSNL thread, discover that they have been cheated and attempt to contact UltimateBet, they're forced to wait several days for an email response, only to be told that UltimateBet is 'looking into the allegations.'
UltimateBet has not offered to reimburse any of the victims of the theft.
Isn't that enough? There is proof, of course, and I encourage you to read the 2+2 post.
Again, UB CHEATS AND STEALS, and you ought to know it by now.
Or you could be like this douchebag who posted on my 3 year old "Still the Worst" post just last month... LONG after he should have known better:
"ive played here for years never had a problem
Posted by: kidplay at May 2, 2008 10:39 PM".
Here's more, responses to this YOUTUBE recreation of AbsolutePoker cheater "Potripper" in action:
"Whatever I play every hand and win tournaments all the time, you just gotta have a gut feeling. Besides if they were cheating why would they make it so freakin' obvious?"
"lol he just seems like anyother typical donk if u ask me. go on any poker romm many ppl play very random"
Folks, Absolute Poker and Ultimate Bet are owned by the same corrupt douchebag. If you play on either site you are just giving money away.
If that is your goal please contact us here at the following poker blog. We will accept your cash.
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