Sitting in a casino cafe that can be found in every casino on the strip, and waiting for our food to arrive, I noticed a race getting ready to run on the only TV in the joint. I offered G-Rob $5 a race. In this particular race, I noticed the money was heavily on the 7 horse to the tune of 8-5. I gave G-Rob the field and took the 7 horse.

By the time the race began, my horse was the third favorite. The smart money, which usually comes in late, wasn't on my horse.

"Oh, it's a turf race," I said. "Don't worry about the horses that get out fast. The closers are usually the winners on the grass."

My horse got out fast. And finished dead last. G-Rob got a hearty laugh out of that one. We tried a few more races, but in these, I didn't give him the field. Neither of us won. But that wasn't it for the ponies for me.

Sunday morning, with G-Rob and Bad Blood already on the plane, I hit the sportsbook at the Palms. I bought a couple of racing forms and settled in for a couple hours of racing. It went very, very well.

Race 9 Monmouth

It was the Lighthouse Stakes, going 1m 70 on the dirt, and I liked the 1 horse, Devil House. I bet $5 on him to win, and when he came across the wire in first, he paid $30.80 on a $2 bet.

My ticket

Race 8 Belmont

This was an Allowance race going just 6 furlongs on the turf. I had my eye on the 9 horse, Gold Vendetta. It was another $5 win bet, and it was another winner, paying $19.80 for a $2 bet. I also had the exacta for $93.50.

My ticket

Race 3 Hollywood Park

Finally, it was a Claiming race going 1m 1/16 on the dirt. I kinda liked two horses. The 4 horse, Brave Sun, and the 6 horse, Sorta Gold. I put down $4 win bets on both of them. When Brave Sun came across in first, a $2 bet paid $28.80.

My ticket

As I tried to explain to G-Rob in Vegas, winning at the ponies isn't about always having the winner. I mean, it'd be nice to win every race, but it just doesn't happen. If you handicap a horse and believe it may win the race once out of every three times the race is run, it's not real smart to place a bet if he's getting 2-5 odds, but it would be a great bet if he's getting 10-1 odds. In each of the races above, I identified horses at great prices that I thought had great shots at winning their races. That makes a profitable day at the sportsbook.

Wish you could have been there, G-Rob.

The Kentucky Derby

Frankly, I didn't spend a whole lot of time on this race. I didn't exactly make that clear in my post, although in ranking the factors that lead me to bet Momba, I put both a random text message from BG and the random selection of Lady Luck above my handicapping.

Monba finished last. Big Brown ran a remarkable race from the outside post.

The Preakness

I didn't bet this race. It didn't make much sense to because Big Brown was facing one of the weakest Triple Crown fields in history. Instead of handicapping it, I gave you all a hot tip on Casino Drive in the Peter Pan Stakes.

Big Brown dominated the Preakness as expected and Casino Drive won the Peter Pan Stakes earning me a couple hundred bucks.

The Belmont

G-Rob seems to delight in the fact that my horse didn't even get to run the race. He seems to suggest that being scratched demonstrates my inability as a handicapper. If anything, I look at this race and think what could have been. Big Brown died on the track (well, not Racing Belles-like dying). I didn't expect that. I did expect, however, that Big Brown would not win this race. Had Casino Drive not been scratched, I'm fairly certain he'd have won it.

Instead, Da'Tara won. A horse that didn't seem like it belonged. It was the longest shot in the field for a reason. In the end, he got to run clean without any real competition. That's probably just the kind of race he needed.

***********************

I didn't make any money on the Triple Crown this year. I don't think I won anything last year, but I can't remember. Two years ago, I hit on Jazil in the Belmont for about $1250. BG and I haven't yet hit a Pick 6, but we've come moderately close. I hit a Pick 4 this year for about $1800. I also had a couple of really successful days at Evangeline Downs mixed in with some average ones.

Picking the ponies isn't easy. But I'm certainly not done sticking my neck out with bold predictions. Perhaps I should add more disclaimers like, "Don't bet my picks," but that won't be much fun for you on those days I do hit!

Now I'm just crossing my fingers that Casino Drive is back on American soil for the Breeders Cup at Santa Anita in late October...

It doesn't really. It would be nice to say, "Well, no one wins the Triple Crown so Big Brown won't win." It's not that easy. As I've already said, this race is different. No horse can truly be prepared for what they'll be facing. So who is most prepared?

1 Big Brown: Enough has been written about just how good he is. Undefeated in 4 starts with the closest win being 4 3/4 lenghts in the Derby. One of only two horses in the field to post a triple digit Beyer speed figure. Seemingly had no trouble with the Preakness distance.
Morning Line: 2-5
Predicted Finish: 2nd

2 Gudalcanal: A surprise last-minute entry, this horse is the only in the field to have run in a 1 1/2 mile race. Last time out, Guadalcanal finished 2nd by a nose over the turf at Churchill Downs. But how much does experience really count here? Not nearly enough.
Morning Line: 50-1
Predicted Finish: 8th

3 Macho Again: In a weak Preakness field, this horse placed, 5 1/4 lengths behind Big Brown. Unfortunately for his owner, I believe that's the high-water mark for his career. This field is better.
Morning Line: 20-1
Predicted Finish: 5th

4 Denis of Cork: Halfway through the Kentuck Derby, this horse sat in 13th place. When the race ended, Denis of Cork was in third. It was an impressive stretch run although it doesn't necessarily suggest he is in any position to out-duel Big Brown. He will, however, be a popular choice for trifectas.
Morning Line: 12-1
Predicted Finish: 3rd

5 Casino Drive: I've written about this horse before. My Hot Belmont Tip from May 10th told you that this would be the horse to watch. Despite being lightly raced (just two career starts), Casino Drive is my pick. When horses lack real experience at a certain distance, it pays to look at breeding. Casino Drive's is impeccable. A sore left hoof is concerning (there is a slight chance he won't be able to run), but I'm confident he'll be on the track when tomorrow comes and he's far and away your best chance at getting a good price on a winner.
Morning Line: 7-2
Predicted Finish: 1st

6 Da' Tara: Sorry, just not a contender. At all. This horse has been completely overmatched by this level of talent every time out. Da' Tara would need a perfect run and a lot of luck to even factor in the superfecta.
Morning Line: 30-1
Predicted Finish: 10th

7 Tale of Ekati: Coming off a nice win in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, this horse seem primed to contend in the Derby. A fourth place finish may sound good, but Tale of Ekati was 11 lengths back of Big Brown. I don't see him fighting for a win tomorrow, but he could be in the mix from show on down.
Morning Line: 20-1
Predicted Finish: 4th

8 Anak Nakal: I'm not sure why, but this horse seems to be getting a lot of buzz going into this race. Seventh in the Derby and 5th in the Wood Memorial don't exactly suggest Anak Nakal is ready to win the Belmont. I'd be surprised if he made a strong push.
Morning Line: 30-1
Predicted Finish: 7th

9 Ready's Echo: Like Da' Tara, this horse is completely outclassed in this field. Last time out, he finished 6 1/2 lengths behind Casino Drive in the Peter Pan Stakes. It would take quite a step up to contend this time out.
Morning Line: 30-1
Predicted Finish: 9th

10 Icabad Crane: There's a little to like about this horse. His Beyer speed figures have climbed each of the last two races including a strong third place in the Preakness. I suppose with another step forward, Icabad Crane could be in the mix, but I just don't see it happening.
Morning Line: 20-1
Predicted Finish 6th

***********************************

Big Brown is a great, great horse. As much as I detest trainer Rick Dutrow, it can't overshadow the talent Big Brown brings to the track.

(Digression. Why do I hate Rick Dutrow? It's not just that he's a loudmouth blowhard. It's that he's a cheater. From ESPN.com:

And he's been fined or suspended at least once every year since 2000 for doping issues. In 2000, a barn search in New York produced "an injectible vitamin which is forbidden." In '01, a horse had excessive Lasix -- an anti-bleeding medication -- in its system. In '02, Dutrow "failed to follow Lasix procedures." In '03, a horse tested positive for Mepivacaine. From '04 through an '08 fine in Florida, there were citations regarding Lasix, Clenbuterol, Phenylbutazone and Oxyphenbutazone. He served a 60-day suspension in 2005 after two of his horses tested positive for banned substances and for a claiming violation. Then, in 2007, he served an additional 14-day suspension and was fined $25,000 for violating conditions of his suspension by having contact with his stable.

He puts his horses in danger by doing anything to win. Big Brown has been pumped with a steroid every month. It's a steroid that is currently banned in 10 states, but not in the states where Triple Crown races are held. But I digress...)

Big Brown will likely win the Triple Crown. I think that's fair to say. He'll go off at less than even money (I'm guessing no better than 1-5). But I'm not betting him. Big Brown was as close to a sure thing in the Preakness a few weeks back as you could possibly be. He raced against a weak field that was unprepared to challenge him. That's not the case this time around. Plus, as ESPN.com points out, there may be a real effort by other jockeys and/or trainers to prevent a Triple Crown winner.

In other words, put your money on Casino Drive.

Here's what I'm betting:
$20 Win: 5 Casino Drive
$10 Exacta Box: 5 Casino Drive/1 Big Brown
$2 Exacta: 5 Casino Drive with 3 Macho Again, 4 Denis of Cork and 7 Tale of Ekati
$1 Trifecta: 5 Casino Drive and 1 Big Brown with 5 Casino Drive and 1 Big Brown with 3 Macho Again, 4 Denis of Cork and 7 Tale of Ekati
$1 Superfecta: 5 Casino Drive and 1 Big Brown with 5 Casino Drive and 1 Big Brown with 3 Macho Again, 4 Denis of Cork and 7 Tale of Ekati with 3 Macho Again, 4 Denis of Cork, 7 Tale of Ekati and 10 Icabad Crane

That's a total of $70. I'll let you know how I make out!

Back in 2006, I luckboxed my way into a pretty big pay day in the Belmont. I keyed in on Jazil and managed to hit the win, the exacta, the trifecta and the superfecta for a $1250 payout. I haven't yet been able to repeat that success.

Jazil is the reason I like Casino Drive. You see, they're half-brothers. Better Than Honor is the dam ("mom") of Jazil and Casino Drive, as well as Rags to Riches, the filly who shocked the Belmont field in 2007. If you're keeping track, that's the 2006 Belmont and the 2007 Belmont.

Better Than Honor was sired by Deputy Minister (her "dad") who has sired 80 different graded stakes winners. Deputy Minister is also the damsire ("granddad") of Bob and John and Curlin... perhaps you remember them.

Casino Drive was sired by Mineshaft, the 2003 U.S. Horse of the year. Mineshaft's blood line runs back through his sire A.P. Indy and his grandsire Seattle Slew.

Long story short (too late), Casino Drive has the blood line. He's very lightly raced, however, winning his only start in February at the Kyoto in Japan. He won by 11 1/2 lengths.

Casino Drive will make his American debut tomorrow at Belmont in the Peter Pan Stakes. He drew the rail (not my favorite, but not terrible) in the 9 horse field and will be ridden by legendary jockey Kent Desormeaux (who, you may remember, just won the Kentucky Derby aboard Big Brown). Casino Drive is the current morning line favorite at 2/1 (coupled with his stablemate), so it's not like he's some well-kept secret.

Regardless of how he does tomorrow (not all horses do well the first race after being shipped), Casino Drive will run in the Belmont Stakes in a month. And if Big Brown has already wrapped up the first two legs of the Triple Crown, Casino Drive could get a great price and be just the kind of horse to pull an upset.

Update: Casino Drive won the Peter Pan Stakes by 5 3/4 lengths, and that was despite getting out of the gate slowly. He went off at 6/5 stakes, so my $20 win bet only paid me $45. But, I also wheeled him on top of a $5 exacta with the rest of the field and an 18/1 longshot placed. That bet paid $166.25. Not a bad day at the virtual track.

1. It started with a text message this morning from BG:

"$21 to win on BOB BLACK JACK, $10 to win on MONBA"

With a brother named Bob, and the obvious gambling reference, BG would be crazy NOT to bet on Bob Black Jack. That's where his heart is. That means his head must be with Monba. (Full disclosure: This is only a guess at BG's motive for that pick, especially since on Friday, BG told me he wasn't actually going to handicap the card.)

2. I read off the names of all 20 horses to Lady Luck, and she selected Monba.

3. Armed with this knowledge, I did a little handicapping of the field. Here's what I figured out:

Colonel John should go off as the favorite and has a great shot at winning this race. Coming out of the 10th post, he's in much better shape than Big Brown. And in the Santa Anita Derby one month ago, he showed the 1 1/4m distance likely won't faze him. That said, I won't bet the favorite in a 20-horse Derby field.

Big Brown should go off as the second favorite. He also has a shot at winning this race, but coming out of the 20th post will be more than he can overcome. He'll expend a lot of energy to get himself closer to the rail and the four horses inside of him are too good to allow him that room. This is the best horse in the field, but he won't win.

Pyro should go off as the third favorite. It wouldn't shock me to see him win. He'll leave the gate just inside of Colonel John. The Blue Grass Stakes was a disaster for Pyro (he finished 10th) but I think the Louisiana Derby is probably a better indication of what he may bring on this day. However, he won't win.

A half-dozen other horses will be real contenders: Wood Memorial-winner Tale of Ekati, Florida Deby-runner up Smooth Air, Santa Anita Derby-runner up Bob Black Jack (who should be the early speed), Blue Grass Stakes-runner up Cowboy Cal, Illinois Derby-winner Recapturetheglory, and Arkansas Derby-winner Gayego (beware of injury whispers on this horse).

All those horses are certainly capable making this a very difficult field to break down. It doesn't take much skill, however, to list 10 horses that could win a race. What you want is the winner. And that winner will be Monba.

I anticipate Monba getting out good from the 14th post, following Bob Black Jack who may be the early leader. Look for Monba to settle in a few off the rail by the first turn. He'll be in trouble if he lets those big horses outside of him get a jump on him, but I think he'll be fine.

By the stretch, Pyro will be passing Bob Black Jack, Big Brown will be rallying from well back on the outside, Colonel John will begin his move from the middle of the pack, but Monba will be best positioned to get the win. He'll duel with Pyro, before winning by a length, Colonel John will get up for third, Big Brown fourth and Bob Black Jack fifth.

There it is. The Blue Grass Stakes winner will make it happen again.

And, since you asked, Big Brown will take the Preakness and Colonel John (after skipping the Preakness) will take the Belmont.

Place your bets!

UPDATE:

My bets are now placed.

$10 Win #14 Monba
$10 Win #9 Pyro
$7 Win #2 Tale of Ekati
$5 Win #13 Bob Blackjack
$2 Ex #14 Monba w/ #9 Pyro
$2 Ex Box #9 Pyro, #10 Colonel John, #20 Big Brown
$2 Tri #14 Monba w/ #9 Pyro w/ #10 Colonel John
$1 Tri #14 Monba, #9 Pyro w/ #14 Monba, #9 Pyro, #10 Colonel John, #20 Big Brown w/ #10 Colonel John, #20 Big Brown, #13 Bob Black Jack
$2 Tri Box #9 Pyro, #10 Colonel John, #20 Big Brown
$1 Super #14 Monba, #9 Pyro, #10 Colonel John, #20 Big Brown
$1 Super #14 Monba, #9 Pyro w/ #14 Monba, #9 Pyro, #10 Colonel John, #20 Big Brown w/ #10 Colonel John, #13 Bob Blackjack, #20 Big Brown w/ #10 Colonel John, #13 Bob Blackjack, #20 Big Brown
$1 High Five #14 Monba w/ #9 Pyro w/ #10 Colonel John w/ #20 Big Brown w/ #13 Bob Blackjack

That's $96 dollars in bets. I planned to spend $100, but lost a few bucks on the 9th race (Oneida did pick the winner by name, however, or I would have lost even more!). Good luck at the windows!

Yeah, the Luckbox stumbled into an $1800 Pick 4 payoff. Remember that horse I didn't push hard enough to include in the Pick 6? Well, I thought enough of her to put her on my Pick 4 ticket. And when Stella Mark won Race 9 as a 15-1 shot, it set the stage for what I imagined might be a nice payout.

The Pick 6 ended up paying out more than $33,000. I'm really kicking myself now that we weren't in on that. Looking back, what's not to like about Stella Mark? I wrote in my notes, "Solid Beyers, good breeding for distance, solid trainer numbers." Not only that, she was coming off a bullet workout at 6 furlongs.

But hindsight is always 20/20. We'll do this again soon. This wasn't necessarily a blow to our confidence. I'm actually pretty happy with my handicapping. Our instincts were right, but your instincts don't always make it onto the ticket. Maybe next time they will.

Race 6: 7f Clm50000
2 Switzerland, 7 Sorcerers Spell, 9 Hit and Hope

BG and I were in agreement that Sorcerer's Spell and Hit and Hope are the top choices in this race. After getting through the whole card, we had enough in our budget to add another horse and it was Switzerland just ahead of the 8 horse, Exceeding.

RESULTS: It's over before it begins. The last horse we left off was Exceeding. He was actually my Dad's favorite in this race, but was just left off the ticket by BG and I. Hit and Hope ran up front most of the way, but faded. The favorite, Switzerland, was never a factor. Socerers Spell ran one of the worst races I've seen in awhile. Started well behind the pack. And I mean WELL. Was forced to unwind really early and came around the turn 12-15 wide. No one can win running a race like that. Very disappointing.

Race 7: 1m Md Sp Wt 50K
1 Colgan's Chip, 5 Sun Lightning

Once again, BG and I locked in on the same two horses. We had some discussion about adding a third horse here, perhaps the 4, Express Rail, the 6, Star Nicholas, or the 11 Tote's Humdinger, but we like our choices.

RESULTS: Photo Finish. Colgan's Chip was the even money favorite (as expected) and ran wire-to-wire. A late charge came from Tote's Humdinger (a horse I liked, but not enough to include), but it appears as though we hit this race. Small consolation since we missed the first. We're still alive for a small 5 for 6 payoff.

Race 8: 6 1/2f (T) Alw 52000N1X
2 Beyond Loaded, 3 Swift Winds, 4 Cadillac (NZ), 6 Black Astor, 7 Ron Bob and Dave, 13 Diamond Dave

As you can see, we selected 6 different horses from the 11 horses in the field. Although that may suggest a lack of confidence in our picks, it actually has more to do with the unique nature of the field. Okay, maybe not. This is a field full of horses with a chance to win this race. If we had to back just one, BG and I are fully behind Beyond Loaded.

RESULTS: Our top choice only got up for fourth, but our next two choices finished first and second. It ended up being an easier race than we thought. We even had the show horse on our ticket. We're now 2 for 3. I'd have rather had the 6 horse win with longer odds, but we'll take the 7 horse at 9/2.

Race 9: 1 1/16m Alw 57000N1X
1 Banner Lodge, 5 Gregorian Bay, 10 Informed

Expect Banner Lodge to be heavily bet. He's the 8/5 morning line favorite and there's a lot of reasons to like this horse. The price, however, should be found on Informed. This is the kind of horse that could help us to a heftier Pick 6 payoff. Due to budget contraints, we left off the 7, Stella Mark and the 12, Cherokee Tear.

RESULTS: Well, hopefully my dad put some money down on Stella Mark. Stella is my niece's name. She paid $33.40 to win. And she eliminated any chance we had at a consolation payoff. The best we did was to get Gregorian Bay up to third. Banner Lodge was the heavy favorite, ran near the front most of the way, and ran out of steam. Informed hung around, but didn't have it at the end either.

Race 10: 1m (T) La Puente 100k
7 Capture the Call, 10 Tiz West, 12 Ez Dreamer

Once again, BG and I were in agreement. It's Tiz West or Ez Dreamer. The last horse we added to the entire ticket was Capture the Call. This race didn't present many more horses we considered.

RESULTS: Well, it was Tiz West. Ran a great race tracking the leader the whole way before making a move just at the top of the stretch. Strong race. Our 2nd choice finished third. Too bad we're not still alive to our single in the 11th.

Race 11: 5 1/2f Md 32000
2 Mr. Elroy

This is it. It's the single. Frankly, there weren't very many other ways to go in this race. Maybe we would have included the 14, Last Black Lion, but, frankly, in order to get in under our budget, this made the most sense. Mr. Elroy should win this race.

RESULTS: Mr. Elroy won it as expected. A little scary, but he won it going away. That made us 4 for 6 for the day, which doesn't pay the bills. Unfortunately, we actually liked the 8 horse back in the 6th race, but didn't have the budget for him. And in the 9th race, well, I fault myself. Not only is the horse named after my niece, but she was my personal second choice, and I didn't push for her on the ticket. We were close, but it doesn't pay the bills. Thanks for investing. We'll try again soon.

*************************************************

The final tally? 20 investors, $648, 18 horses, 1 big pay day. I'll be adding results here as they come in. Good luck!

1. $25 PokerStars transfer to Up4Poker (Evansville)
2. $25 Full Tilt Poker transfer to UpForPoker (Evansville)
3. $27 PayPal payment to cusephenom -@- yahoo (DOT) com

After making your transfer, please email me at the above address with confirmation that you sent it. Sound good? We'll see you at the track!

This Saturday, we're playing the Pick 6 at a track to be announced. BG is doing what he does best, targeting the right race card. And I'm doing what I do best, soliciting a bunch of our friends to invest their hard-earned or hard-won dollars on this endeavor.

This time around, we're looking for anyone willing to put up $25. It's a smaller investment than normal because we're just a little out of practice. It's a little like... er... riding a horse, but not quite. We want to get back in a rhythm before we make you shell out even more.

Here's how it works:

1) Each share costs $25 and it's one share per person (except BG and I, because, well, we're running this thing).
2) Any winnings under the cost of the bet will be re-invested in a future Pick 6.
3) Any winnings over the cost of the bet will be divided by the number of shares and distributed accordingly.
4) You can pay me in one of two ways, a PokerStars transfer to Up4Poker or a Full Tilt Poker transfer to UpForPoker. Please be VERY careful about the transfer. The location attached to the account should be Evansville. I would send me an email (to cusephenom -@- yahoo (DOT) com) when you do a transfer so I can email you back to let you know it arrived. Per a Joe Speaker request, you may also pay via PayPal, but you're responsible for the $2 juice, so you'll need to send $27 via PayPal to cusephenom -@- yahoo (DOT) com.
5) A transfer of money is an agreement allowing BG and I to use your money to bet on a Pick 6 at a track of our choice on Saturday.
6) Should something prevent a bet on Saturday, a future bet will occur at the first opportunity.
7) All transfers must be made by 6pm CT Friday.

If you have any questions about how this works, let me know. BG are going to hit this sooner or later. We're really hoping it's sooner.

1) Identify the card. Not every Pick 6 is made to be won. Each year, the Breeder's Cup features the Ultra Pick 6. In 2006, no one hit it. The year before, just one ticket that paid almost $3 million. It's a tough card. When BG and I played it last year, it was probably the worst results we'd ever had on a Pick 6 partnership.

It's important to identify a card you feel comfortable handicapping. Sometimes those Grade 1 Stakes are a little trickier, and a card full of Grade 1's might not be right for you. Pick a track you like and a track with which you have some experience.

2) Identify the carryover. A carryover in the Pick 6 is equivalent to an overlay in a tournament. It's money that's added to the pot by someone other than the bettors. That's always a good thing. On that one Pick 6 back in September, there was a whopping $245,000 carryover. When BG and I see something like that, we mobilize.

3) Identify your budget. It's just like your bankroll. You won't sit down at a $5/$10 NL table with $300. Don't plan on betting 4 horses per race with $300. There's simple math here. If you pick 3 horses per race, that's 3x3x3x3x3x3 mutiplied by $2. You better have $1458 for those 18 horses in that case. Mix is up a little, say 4x1x5x5x1x2, muliplied by $2, and you're spending just $400 for those 18 horses. Pick a budget and find a combination that fits.

4) Throw out the losers. Tossing horses is important. It makes it a lot easier to narrow down your choices. In every race, there are at least a handful of horses who just don't belong. I generally work my way through the card and eliminate at least half the horses from any consideration.

5) Find the "singles." Want to keep your budget down? Find at least one race in which you feel like there's a sure thing. Every "single" you find will significantly bring down your costs. Of course, it's scary going into a race with only one horse that will keep you alive, but most people don't have thousands of dollars to spend on a Pick 6 ticket.

6) Identify a few long shots. You'll rarely ever find a Pick 6 ticket full of chalk. It just doesn't happen. The difference between you getting that 5 out of 6 consolation ticket and the guy next to you cashing for six figures is finding the right long shots. You can't (and wouldn't want to) load up your ticket with long shots because, well, they're long shots for a reason. But finding one or two that may shock the field could help you to a much bigger pay day when they come in.

7) Narrow the rest. What I've suggested up until now is easy. This step is the hardest. In general, after completing the steps suggested above, you'll be left with as many as three times as many horses as you can afford to put on your ticket. There's no sure-fire way to narrow your choices. If there were, BG and I would be retired on our Pick 6 winnings by now. Instead, it's about smart handicapping and playing your feelings.

8) Get lucky. This one is kinda self-explanatory. Some of us are better at it than others.

Remember, it's not about handicapping each race individually like you would if you were betting a card. This is about picking 6 straight winners. This is about identifying a group of horses that can win. After you've made your choices and placed your bet, cross your fingers and pray to whatever god of luck you believe in.

And speaking of Pick 6's, BG and I are likely getting back on the horse (pun intended). That means we'll be looking for investors. We'll probably do a small one first to get back in rhythm before targeting a nice potential payday. I'll let you know when the time comes.

The Boy Genius Ticket (so named because it's the smartest):

Race 5 (Filly and Mare Turf): #2 Ouija Board, #5 Honey Ryder, #7 Wait a While
Race 6 (Sprint): #6 Bordonaro, #11 Siren Lure
Race 7 (Turf Mile): #12 Gorella
Race 8 (Distaff): #2 Pine Island, #6 Spun Sugar, #7 Fleet Indian
Race 9 (Turf Classic): #7 Hurricane Run
Race 10 (Dirt Classic): #3 Bernardini, #11 Invasor

The Otis Ticket (so named because it's the most expensive, and Otis can afford it):

Race 5 (Filly and Mare Turf): #2 Ouija Board, #5 Honey Ryder, #7 Wait a While
Race 6 (Sprint): #4 Henny Hughes, #6 Bordonaro, #8 Pomeroy, #9 Too Much Bling, #11 Siren Lure
Race 7 (Turf Mile): #12 Gorella
Race 8 (Distaff): #2 Pine Island, #6 Spun Sugar, #7 Fleet Indian
Race 9 (Turf Classic): #4 Scorpion, #6 Cacique, #7 Hurricane Run
Race 10 (Dirt Classic): #3 Bernardini, #11 Invasor

The G-Rob Ticket (so named because we don't really like it):

Race 5 (Filly and Mare Turf): #2 Ouija Board, #5 Honey Ryder, #7 Wait a While
Race 6 (Sprint): #6 Bordonaro, #11 Siren Lure
Race 7 (Turf Mile): #3 Araafa, #12 Gorella, #14 Aussie Rules
Race 8 (Distaff): #2 Pine Island, #6 Spun Sugar, #7 Fleet Indian
Race 9 (Turf Classic): #7 Hurricane Run
Race 10 (Dirt Classic): #3 Bernardini, #11 Invasor

The AlCantHang Ticket (so named because I think we were drunk when we made it):

Race 5 (Filly and Mare Turf): #2 Ouija Board, #5 Honey Ryder, #7 Wait a While
Race 6 (Sprint): #6 Bordonaro, #11 Siren Lure
Race 7 (Turf Mile): #12 Gorella
Race 8 (Distaff): #2 Pine Island, #6 Spun Sugar, #7 Fleet Indian
Race 9 (Turf Classic): #7 Hurricane Run
Race 10 (Dirt Classic): #3 Bernardini, #7 David Junior, #11 Invasor, #13 Sun King

The Luckbox Ticket (so named because it's the longshot):

Race 5 (Filly and Mare Turf): #1 Dancing Edie, #2 Ouija Board, #4 Film Maker, #5 Honey Ryder, #7 Wait a While
Race 6 (Sprint): #6 Bordonaro, #11 Siren Lure
Race 7 (Turf Mile): #12 Gorella
Race 8 (Distaff): #2 Pine Island, #6 Spun Sugar, #7 Fleet Indian, #12 Asi Siempre, #13 Happy Ticket
Race 9 (Turf Classic): #7 Hurricane Run
Race 10 (Dirt Classic): #3 Bernardini, #9 Giacomo, #11 Invasor

That's 5 different tickets, but if the first one hits, that means we win 5 different ways. Of course, if the first one hits, it won't pay nearly as much as some of our other tickets should some longer shots come in.

For some perspective, no one won the Ultra Pick 6 last year or the year before. The year before that, one lucky person held a winning ticket worth $2.68 million. We're not likely to see that kind of payday today, but if we hit, we could be looking at as much as six figures.

BG will likely be live-blogging this over at his blog today, so check in there for live updates. We're probably about an hour away from the start of Race 5 which is scheduled to go off at 1:55pm ET. All of the races should be on ESPN if you want to watch. Wish us luck!

Race #6:
3-Fighting City Hall
4-Greedy Way

BG and I feel pretty good about this race. There was one other horse we considered, but we've got the class of this field locked in.

Race #7:
2-Swiss Address
3-Jack's Wild
9-County
11-Bonus Pack

We really expet the 2 or 11 to win this, although BG is big on the 3 as well. The very last horse we put on our ticket was County.

Race #8:
5-Attima

In order to have a managable price, you have to find a race where you have a good feeling about just one horse. For BG and I, it was Attima in the featured race of the day.

Race #9:
1-Areyoutalkintome
3-Publication
4-Trickey Trevor
6-Siren Lure

BG and I feel real good that these are the only four horses with a chance to win this race. We'll be very happy if we're alive going into the 9th race.

Race #10:
1-Charming N Lovable
2-Silly Little Mama
3-Tasha's Delight

The 3 was another late add to the ticket after one of our choices was scratched. We have a good feeling that Silly Little Mama is the horse here. We'll be on cloud nine if we're still alive going into the 10th race.

Race #11:
1-Marquis Form
9-Yenisey River

The final race of the Pick 6 is a 12-horse Maiden Special Weight. That means 12 horse who have never won. It's the kind of race designed to bust Pick 6 tickets. And despite that, we're going just two deep here. If we had $1000 to spend, we might go 6 or 8 deep on this race. Instead, we're hoping the chalk, Marquis Form, runs away with it. And, really, if we're still alive at this point, BG and I will be like giddy little schoolgirls.

1:00pm: It's time for race #1 at Arlington Park. I have my eye on Sweet Baby Ray and Small Fry. Sweet Baby Ray bled on his first race and is on Lasix this time. Small Fry has very good breeding and solid trainer numbers. When this trainer wins, there's usually a price. For some reason, Custom Cart is going off at about even money. I don't get it, so I can't bet him. Small Fry is at 12-1, and since I'm not sure why Custom Cart is such a huge favorite, I'm betting this one light with just a $2 WP on Small Fry.

1:07pm: Well, the bettors knew what they were doing. Custom Cart won by a few lenghts. Unfortunately, Small Fry got edged out for Place by my other pick, Sweet Baby Ray. Too bad I didn't do some kind of trifecta here, it paid $110.

1:18pm: In race #2, I think it's all about My Little Mimi. The trainer win percentages show this horse is in this race for a reason. The Beyer speed figure has jumped eah of the last two races and even just a repeat of last time will be enough. This horse is ITM 4 of 6 races. I also like Catchyounextime who's been ITM last 3 times against similar. Great breeding here as well. Just one win in 25 attempts, though. I'll also keep my eye on Willy's Hope and Mrs. Capp.

1:24pm: The wagers: (Pick 3-$8) 2,4/7,8/4,6... (Pick 4-$12) 2,4/7/4,6/2,3,4... (Win-$10) 4... (Win-$5) 2... (Trifecta-$8) 2,4/2,4/All

1:28pm: Willy's Hope is a late scratch.

1:33pm: Well, unfortunately, My Little Mimi ended up going off at even money. She was 5/2 when I got my bet down. Catchyounextime didn't figure in the result. She made a late closing run, but couldn't get past a big pack of four in front of her. My Pick 3 and Pick 4 are still alive. On the bets on this single race, I wagered $23 and won $21. I'm down $6 for the day with a Pick 3 and a Pick 4 still alive.

1:37pm: Here's how #3 breaks down for me. Gigi From Fiji will likely go off at worse than even money. She's the best horse in the field. She's handled this class while having trouble when she steps up. The trainer numbers are outstanding. The competition should come from just outside her in Meet My Kid. She's won or placed in her last 4 claimers. Last race out, she stepped up and was slapped down. Great breeding for this distance. Indelibull Rose is my third choice.

1:58pm: The wagers: (Pick 3-$4) 7,8/4,6/4... (Exacta $5) 7/8.

2:01pm: Well, all my Pick 3's and 4's are dead. My third choice, Indelibull Rose won the race with my top choice second. I didn't have Indelibull Rose in any of my exotics, however. That means I'm down $35 for the day.

2:05pm: Race #4. My top choice is Dubuque. He'd been showing Beyer improvement prior to a light regression last out. Has been in the mix in the last two vs. similar. The trainer win percentages are solid. Tenpointfive is going to get a lot of attention because he's got the best Beyers in the field. He's been ITM three straight vs. similar. He's had trouble making the distance, however. Irish Song shouldn't have that trouble. The breeding is the best in the field. He's also had some Beyer improvement. Irish Song is BG's top pick.

2:15pm: The wagers: (Pick 3-$6) 1,4/4/1,5,12... (Trifecta-$12) 1,4/1,2,4,6/1,2,4,6... (WP-$10) 3 (BG recommendation)... (Exacta-$8) 4/1,2,3,6

2:33pm: Damn. Somehow, #7 Sign the Ticket won that race. BG's top choice Irish Song and my top choice Dubuque placed and showed respectively. That's how quickly it can go bad when one horse screws you up. Now down $71. Gotta hit a winner here.

2:45pm: Race #5. Spanning is my top choice here. She was the 9/5 ML favorite but is now sitting around 7/2. For some reason, I Love Lisa is now at even money. I like her, too, but not as much as Spanning. BG doesn't like my choice. The best prices will be Miss Expectation (my third choice) and In Case of Wind (longshot pick).

2:56pm: The wagers: (WP-$10) 6 (both BG and I like the price here 10-1)... (DD $6) 2,4/2,5,12... (Trifecta-$6) 2,4/2,4/1,3,6.

3:01pm: Spanning went off at even money so I didn't bet the win there, but he ran away with the race, slowing to a gallop at the wire to win by a mile. It looks like our longshot Proven Honor got up for the place. That means my Daily Double is still alive and no my bets for the race, I finished up $1.50. That puts me down $69.50 with a Daily Double still alive.

3:11pm: Big field for race #6, 12 horses. It's really wide open. Both BG and I have Lacer as our top choice. This is the 2nd off a layoff and a return to form would be plenty for this field. Second choice is Gallo Del Bar who's got consistently good Beyers and a slight step down in class could help. Lord Carmen is coming off a long layoff and is worth a look. Your longshot is Load a Chronic and anything north of 7-1 will get a bet from me.

3:18pm: The wagers: (Pick 3-$9) 2,5,12/1/2,3,7... (Pick 4-$9) 2,5,12/1/2,3,7/9... (Win-$20) 2... (Place-$10) 2... (Ex Box-$12) 2,5,12... (Trifecta-$12) 2,5,12/2,5,12/1,2,5,12

3:35pm: Disaster. I'm now down $153.50. Some way, some how, Rapid Proof won the race. Lacer stalked but faded and Gallo Del Bar never closed. My long shot, Load a Chronic ended up going off as the second favoritre and got up for third. I lost everything. Ugh. If this is a sign of things to come...

3:45pm: Race #7. I'm glad no one is actually reading this. This race was supposed to be about #1 Chile's Quest and #1A Omaggio. Unfortunately, Chile's Quest was scratched leaving the lesser of the coupled entrants. Omaggio is still the class of the field. That said, I don't want to bet him at even money or worse. I'm going to turn my attention to Chameleon who's coming off a layoff and Buillion who's coming off a win vs. similar and a place before that.

3:57pm: The wagers (I'm betting against the favorite on this one): (WP-$20) 5,6... (Exacta $8) 5,6/1,5,6... (Trifecta $12) 5,6/1,2,5,6/1,2,5,6... (Pick 3-$6) 1/2,3,7/9

4:06pm: Sigh. I was right, Omaggio didn't win. Unfortunately, it was Royal Flyer who won it and my money on #5 Systematic Saint only got up for show. Down $199.50.

4:20pm: Race #8 is all about Kentucky Derby alum Storm Treasure, but I'm not sold on him. Equal Opportunity is a good horse and worth a look. The long shots are Arbuckle Bandit (who I'll put money on), but he's likely out of his class, and Proudinsky who's likely been brought over to America for a reason.

4:28pm: The wagers: (WP $10) 2... (Exacta $10) 3/2,5-8

4:37pm: Sigh. My long shot went off at 43-1 and ran a great race, dueling until the end, but managing just a place. Storm Treasure was never a factor, as I figured. #1 Kingship eeked out a win over BG's upset choice Proudinsky. Make that down $219.50.

4:58pm: It's time for the ninth and final race. This card couldn't end soon enough. Can I get even? Not likely. BG says long shot Boom Boom Charlie (currently 9-1) could be the upset pick here. There's lots to like about Devil's Diary who will be about even money at post time. BG doesn't buy it. If the last few races are any indication, the big favorites are paper tigers. My 2nd choice is the second favorite, Class Ack. I wish the price were higher than 3-1.
Mr. Jingles could be a possibility here and with a good price.

5:03pm: The wagers: (WP-$20) 2,3

5:08pm: Fitting end to the card. Boom Boom Charlie never threatened. Mr. Jingles lead the whole way and, naturally, was caught to finish third. Class Ack won it going away. Guess betting my second choice might be a good idea. That means I wrapped the Arlington Park card down $239.50. I suck.

"Cmonwitdatone!"
*snap*
"Cmonwitdatone!"
*snap*
"Cmonwitdatone!"

Apparently when you spend a lot of time at the track, you begin to lose the ability to enunciate. My own, "Come on with that 1!" sounded downright British compared to the Acadiana slurs I was hearing through every race.

And it didn't work, either. The #1 horse, Peetiethepieman, got out to an early lead but failed to hold off Best Minister Yet. That cost me the win and the exacta. Had the 3 horse gotten up for third, I would have had the trifecta, but that didn't happen either. The near miss was a sign of things to come.

"Deryagotree!"
*snap*
"Deryagotree!"
*snap*
"Deryagotree!"

Perhaps my problem is that I don't punctuate every exclamation with a snap. That's the way the pros do it. You can spot the amateurs because they slap their hand with their program instead. Someday maybe I'll be a snapper.

The three horse didn't finish first, but he did win the race. Despite coming out of the turn swerving worse than Lindsey Lohan driving Tara Reid home on a Saturday night, #3 Taylor's Niner was not the one disqualified. It was #1 All Black, who was clearly the better before drifting inexplicably inward in front of the three before running away with it. The DQ kept my new Pick 3 alive, but the rest of the race was a loser.

I didn't cash my first ticket until the fifth race, and that was only because my longshot special was a late scratch and I got a refund. The next race, one of my top picks tossed his jockey right after the start. The horse finished strong though, crossing the line sans jockey about 30 lengths out. Thankfully, I did score a 4-1 win bet in the race to finally break the seal.

The Pick 3 from the 6th, 7th and 8th races paid a whopping $1760. I didn't have that bet.

I did however, fight my way back thanks to an offspring of a familiar racing name, Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Silver Charm. Going off at 5/2 was Private Charm. The big win bet was nice, but the $71 exacta, which I had 2.5 times, was even better.

Back in March, I closed strong, nailing a 42-1 shot. Tonight, there was no 42-1 shot worth betting. There was, however, an intriguing 6-1 horse that was hoping to break his maiden in his 5th race. All the other money was going to a horse that had already failed to win 10 times, but not mine.

My horse, #4 Preceaux, came across the line first, securing me a modest profit for the night. Unfortunately, it was the #2 horse and not the #1 that placed costing me an exacta in the $200 range. That's okay, though. As bad as my night started, I was more than happy to pull my one outer on the river.

Next time maybe I'll try the sandals, three-days-of-facial-hair-growth, spit-cup-carrying look and see if that helps me to a little more consistent night. I'm certainly working on my snapping!

Today, I won $1250 in 2 1/2 minutes. Poker is hard-pressed to match the kind of building excitement I got in watching my top pick, Jazil, come from dead last to first.

I remember when I won a $1700 pot in Tunica in a NL cash game, but then it was more a sense of relief when my opponent failed to turn over a better hand. I won a tournament at the MGM last time we were all in Vegas, after making a questionable, but profitable call. I guess I was in more disbelief than anything else after the cards fell that time.

Today, my blood was pumping. The adrenaline was as much as I've ever felt at a poker table. It started and was over faster than most of your biggest poker hands last.

When I bet a race card, it's 2 minutes of pure adrenaline broken up by 20 minutes of intense consideration. At the poker table, it's long periods of mind-numbing folding broken up by flashes of excitement.

This is dangerous territory I'm entering. If I'm looking for the best place to gamble my money based on the best rush I receive, I might as well throw dice, or worse yet, play the Roulette wheel. Gambling shouldn't be primarly about the rush.

Lots of compulsive gamblers rely on that rush to remind them they're alive. It fills a gap in their life. They're constantly willing to risk everything they have because it won't matter whether they win or lose, it's that moment in which their future is balanced on a needle that they seek.

I haven't been playing as much poker recently, but I have been betting the ponies more often. In many cases, they're bets based on little-to-no information, which is akin to playing the lottery. If that's all I'm doing, I might as well hit a NL table and push with any two cards. I would never do that, so why am I doing this?

I don't want to live for the rush. Part of me thinks I should step away from all gambling for a week or so. Or maybe I should just prove to myself that the discipline exists. Maybe I should get back into a few tourneys and play the way I know how. Maybe I should refrain from betting any race unless I've spent good time handicapping it.

I can beat the Rush. I don't think it has me yet.

Race 1:
#3 Sweet Devil
#6 Little Bit Foolish
#7 Captain Zones
#3 Sweet Devil, #12 Lucky Dove, #2 Forli's Limit: We both liked the winner in this one.

Race 2:
#1 Windsor Dickens
#8 Rocky Plains
#7 Caper On Holme
#6 Angel by Day, #2 Savannah's Wish, #1 Windsor Dickens: My internet died around here so I didn't get to see it. My top choice got up for show.

Race 3:
#10 Hamlin
#6 Success Affirmed
#3 Edgerson
#9 Toka King, #5 Fire Striker, #6 Success Affirmed: My internet returned just in time to see my top choice turn right out of the gate. That's not a good thing.

Race 4:
#2 Bye Bye Ladies
#6 Stormy Babe
#10 Diamond Fire
#6 Stormy Babe, #2 Bye Bye Ladies, #9 Mysteriousness: I really, really liked Bye Bye Ladies but he came up just short.

Race 5:
#10 Hup Two
#8 Shucks
#3 Hots Is Hot
#3 Hots Is Hot, #7 Crafty Slew, #1 Volcanic Force: Wasn't too close on this one.

Race 6:
#5 Worldly Endeavor
#7 Splice Girl
#3 Witto Road
#5 Worldly Endeavor, #8 Rolly's Babysnooks, #9 Precocity Princess: My top choice came across first, but, for some reason, I didn't bet it.

Race 7:
#7 Professor Biggs
#9 Big Tex
#6 Sandy's Secret
#9 Big Tex, #3 Drivingmaxandmitzi, #7 Professor Biggs: This was my one and only big hit of the day. Big Tex went off at 12/1 and I had a $5 WP on him.

Race 8:
#9 She Too
#5 Dual Diagnosis
#1 Honeymooning
#2 Top Kitten, #7 Debs Gone Shopping, #5 Dual Diagnosis: Huh? Actually, Dual Diagnosis made a nice run after a slow start.

Race 9:
#4 Seneca Summer
#1 Tyler's Jewel
#8 Northcountry Chief
#6 Ceviche, #5 Notonetoquit, #1 Tyler's Jewel: Yet again, the best I could do is find one of my horses in the show.

Race 10:
#6 Puzzle
#9 Secret Samba
#10 Full Flavor
#6 Puzzle, #5 Secret Lies, #10 Full Flavor: Unfortunately, Secret Lies screwed up a nice little pay day here.

Race 11:
#10 Light Night
#3 Lakely
#5 O'Malley
#6 Lite Up, #3 Lakely, #10 Light Night: If the 25/1 shot Lite Up drops dead, I have the winner, the exacta and the trifecta. Dammit.

Race 12:
#9 National Anthem
#6 Skipteaser
#7 Go for Glitter
#8 Peter's Puddles, #12 Unreal General, #3 Major Parker: A fitting way to finish the day. The winner paid $72, the exacta paid $840 and the trifecta paid $8021. I, of course, was nowhere near those horses.

It was a big loss day at the track. I sure better find a way to improve before Kentucky Derby day!