I hate going to bed after a bad beat. But that's exactly what I'm about to do.
I'm in late position with A-10s. I raise to $1, but the small blind re-raises to $3.50. I call.
The flop comes 8-9-J rainbow. I've now got an open-ended straight draw with a back door flush draw and an overcard. Playable. He bets $3.
At this point, the pot is about $12. I'd be putting in another $3. I think pot odds probably said fold, but I'm not good enough at those numbers. I call.
The turn is the Q. Bingo! He bets the pot, I think it was about $15. I raise him all-in (I had about $57 going into the hand). He calls.
I wasn't worried at this point. There's no way he was holding K-10, based on his previous bets. If he flopped the straight, at worst I'm splitting. If he flopped a set, he's got very few outs (I'd be about a 70% favorite). If it's an overpair, I'm in even better shape. Hell, if it's American Airlines, he's drawing dead!
It wasn't rockets, it was cowboys.
The handy-dandy Hand Analyzer puts me at a 94% favorite. He's got just three outs, that would be the three 10's not in my hand.
We all know what happened next. Without playing that hand, I finish the night up about $75. If I win that hand, I finish up about $125. Instead, it's just $25 for my three and a half hours of play.
I think I'll be able to sleep easier tonight thanks to this blog. It's been cathartic.